Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts show Tokyo under mostly to partly cloudy conditions with high humidity through August 8, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near 25–27 °C. Persistent summer warmth, urban heat-island effects, and light winds have kept recent minima above the 23.9 °C climatological normal, pushing trader consensus toward 26 °C or 27 °C outcomes. Model spreads hinge on exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage, with clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 25 °C while continued moisture retention favors the higher end; updated guidance on August 7 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
27°C 50%
26°C 44%
25°C 28%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
21°C or below
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
28%
26°C
44%
27°C
50%
28°C
9%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 50%
26°C 44%
25°C 28%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
4%
22°C
$10 Vol.
4%
23°C
$7 Vol.
2%
24°C
$7 Vol.
3%
25°C
$7 Vol.
28%
26°C
$14 Vol.
44%
27°C
$7 Vol.
50%
28°C
$7 Vol.
9%
29°C
$89 Vol.
2%
30°C
$10 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts show Tokyo under mostly to partly cloudy conditions with high humidity through August 8, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near 25–27 °C. Persistent summer warmth, urban heat-island effects, and light winds have kept recent minima above the 23.9 °C climatological normal, pushing trader consensus toward 26 °C or 27 °C outcomes. Model spreads hinge on exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage, with clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 25 °C while continued moisture retention favors the higher end; updated guidance on August 7 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$180End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts show Tokyo under mostly to partly cloudy conditions with high humidity through August 8, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near 25–27 °C. Persistent summer warmth, urban heat-island effects, and light winds have kept recent minima above the 23.9 °C climatological normal, pushing trader consensus toward 26 °C or 27 °C outcomes. Model spreads hinge on exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage, with clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 25 °C while continued moisture retention favors the higher end; updated guidance on August 7 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$180End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts show Tokyo under mostly to partly cloudy conditions with high humidity through August 8, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting overnight lows near 25–27 °C. Persistent summer warmth, urban heat-island effects, and light winds have kept recent minima above the 23.9 °C climatological normal, pushing trader consensus toward 26 °C or 27 °C outcomes. Model spreads hinge on exact cloud timing and any weak frontal passage, with clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 25 °C while continued moisture retention favors the higher end; updated guidance on August 7 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions