Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a high near 33°C for Tokyo on August 8, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent Pacific high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures across eastern Japan continue to support daytime maxima in the 32–34°C range, consistent with historical August climatology where urban heat-island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability through the weekend, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress cooling, though slight downward revisions in guidance could still favor 32°C. Traders appear to weight the narrow forecast spread heavily while discounting lower-probability extremes below 31°C or above 35°C given current atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 8?
33°C 45%
32°C 24%
34°C 17%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
24%
33°C
45%
34°C
17%
35°C
6%
36°C
4%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 45%
32°C 24%
34°C 17%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
27°C or below
$408 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$153 Vol.
3%
31°C
$255 Vol.
9%
32°C
$220 Vol.
24%
33°C
$375 Vol.
45%
34°C
$139 Vol.
17%
35°C
$821 Vol.
6%
36°C
$203 Vol.
4%
37°C or higher
$106 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a high near 33°C for Tokyo on August 8, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent Pacific high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures across eastern Japan continue to support daytime maxima in the 32–34°C range, consistent with historical August climatology where urban heat-island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability through the weekend, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress cooling, though slight downward revisions in guidance could still favor 32°C. Traders appear to weight the narrow forecast spread heavily while discounting lower-probability extremes below 31°C or above 35°C given current atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,972End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a high near 33°C for Tokyo on August 8, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent Pacific high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures across eastern Japan continue to support daytime maxima in the 32–34°C range, consistent with historical August climatology where urban heat-island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability through the weekend, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress cooling, though slight downward revisions in guidance could still favor 32°C. Traders appear to weight the narrow forecast spread heavily while discounting lower-probability extremes below 31°C or above 35°C given current atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,972End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a high near 33°C for Tokyo on August 8, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent Pacific high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures across eastern Japan continue to support daytime maxima in the 32–34°C range, consistent with historical August climatology where urban heat-island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day variability through the weekend, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress cooling, though slight downward revisions in guidance could still favor 32°C. Traders appear to weight the narrow forecast spread heavily while discounting lower-probability extremes below 31°C or above 35°C given current atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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