Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and ensembles show Chicago's August 8 maximum temperature aligning closely with the 1991-2020 normal of 83.4°F, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge and moderating lake-breeze effects from Lake Michigan. This underpins the market's tight clustering on 82-85°F brackets (combined 72.5% implied probability), where minor differences hinge on afternoon cloud cover, wind shifts, or any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak readings by 1-2°F. Recent model runs indicate low uncertainty overall, with historical analogs for early-August patterns reinforcing limited deviation from normals absent a stronger disturbance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 8?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 8?
84-85°F 40%
82-83°F 34%
86-87°F 18%
80-81°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
12%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
40%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
2%
94°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 40%
82-83°F 34%
86-87°F 18%
80-81°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
75°F or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$12 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$6 Vol.
6%
80-81°F
$25 Vol.
12%
82-83°F
$43 Vol.
34%
84-85°F
$111 Vol.
40%
86-87°F
$65 Vol.
18%
88-89°F
$174 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$55 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$27 Vol.
2%
94°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and ensembles show Chicago's August 8 maximum temperature aligning closely with the 1991-2020 normal of 83.4°F, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge and moderating lake-breeze effects from Lake Michigan. This underpins the market's tight clustering on 82-85°F brackets (combined 72.5% implied probability), where minor differences hinge on afternoon cloud cover, wind shifts, or any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak readings by 1-2°F. Recent model runs indicate low uncertainty overall, with historical analogs for early-August patterns reinforcing limited deviation from normals absent a stronger disturbance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$529End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and ensembles show Chicago's August 8 maximum temperature aligning closely with the 1991-2020 normal of 83.4°F, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge and moderating lake-breeze effects from Lake Michigan. This underpins the market's tight clustering on 82-85°F brackets (combined 72.5% implied probability), where minor differences hinge on afternoon cloud cover, wind shifts, or any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak readings by 1-2°F. Recent model runs indicate low uncertainty overall, with historical analogs for early-August patterns reinforcing limited deviation from normals absent a stronger disturbance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$529End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and ensembles show Chicago's August 8 maximum temperature aligning closely with the 1991-2020 normal of 83.4°F, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge and moderating lake-breeze effects from Lake Michigan. This underpins the market's tight clustering on 82-85°F brackets (combined 72.5% implied probability), where minor differences hinge on afternoon cloud cover, wind shifts, or any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak readings by 1-2°F. Recent model runs indicate low uncertainty overall, with historical analogs for early-August patterns reinforcing limited deviation from normals absent a stronger disturbance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions