Recent model consensus and observed trends point to a highest temperature near or slightly above the 83.5°F August 7 normal for Chicago, with trader positioning favoring 84–87°F amid uncertainty from short-range variability. Key drivers include a relatively benign synoptic pattern with moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover or convective inhibition allowing strong daytime heating, and the moderating influence of Lake Michigan, where onshore lake breezes can suppress inland maxima by several degrees depending on timing and strength. Historical analogs show early-August highs typically cluster in the low-to-mid 80s absent strong ridging or dry downslope winds, while ensemble spread in guidance highlights sensitivity to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Updated NWS and model runs over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 7?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 7?
86-87°F 38%
84-85°F 32%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
38%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
1%
94°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 38%
84-85°F 32%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
75°F or below
$198 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$393 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$86 Vol.
4%
80-81°F
$3 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$63 Vol.
12%
84-85°F
$108 Vol.
32%
86-87°F
$317 Vol.
38%
88-89°F
$64 Vol.
16%
90-91°F
$83 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$52 Vol.
1%
94°F or higher
$80 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and observed trends point to a highest temperature near or slightly above the 83.5°F August 7 normal for Chicago, with trader positioning favoring 84–87°F amid uncertainty from short-range variability. Key drivers include a relatively benign synoptic pattern with moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover or convective inhibition allowing strong daytime heating, and the moderating influence of Lake Michigan, where onshore lake breezes can suppress inland maxima by several degrees depending on timing and strength. Historical analogs show early-August highs typically cluster in the low-to-mid 80s absent strong ridging or dry downslope winds, while ensemble spread in guidance highlights sensitivity to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Updated NWS and model runs over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,447End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and observed trends point to a highest temperature near or slightly above the 83.5°F August 7 normal for Chicago, with trader positioning favoring 84–87°F amid uncertainty from short-range variability. Key drivers include a relatively benign synoptic pattern with moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover or convective inhibition allowing strong daytime heating, and the moderating influence of Lake Michigan, where onshore lake breezes can suppress inland maxima by several degrees depending on timing and strength. Historical analogs show early-August highs typically cluster in the low-to-mid 80s absent strong ridging or dry downslope winds, while ensemble spread in guidance highlights sensitivity to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Updated NWS and model runs over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,447End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and observed trends point to a highest temperature near or slightly above the 83.5°F August 7 normal for Chicago, with trader positioning favoring 84–87°F amid uncertainty from short-range variability. Key drivers include a relatively benign synoptic pattern with moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover or convective inhibition allowing strong daytime heating, and the moderating influence of Lake Michigan, where onshore lake breezes can suppress inland maxima by several degrees depending on timing and strength. Historical analogs show early-August highs typically cluster in the low-to-mid 80s absent strong ridging or dry downslope winds, while ensemble spread in guidance highlights sensitivity to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Updated NWS and model runs over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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