**Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a high of 29°C on August 8, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent model consensus and daily outlooks from the agency show highs stabilizing near 29°C amid the southwest monsoon (habagat), with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rain showers or thunderstorms expected to moderate peak temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. August climatology supports this range, with historical average highs around 30–31°C (86–88°F) and high humidity typical of the wet season. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions noted in sub-seasonal forecasts for early August have not translated into extreme heat, as recent actual maxima in the region have hovered near 30–33°C without strong heatwave drivers. The 30°C bin (27.5%) remains viable if skies clear more than anticipated, while lower outcomes like 28°C gain support from increased rainfall likelihood. No major tropical cyclone influences are projected to alter steering patterns or intensification in the immediate window, keeping resolution centered on these mid-20s to low-30s thresholds. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 8?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 8?
29°C 48%
30°C 28%
28°C 23%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
23%
29°C
48%
30°C
28%
31°C
8%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 48%
30°C 28%
28°C 23%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 8, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$32 Vol.
1%
26°C
$27 Vol.
4%
27°C
$100 Vol.
4%
28°C
$2 Vol.
23%
29°C
$75 Vol.
48%
30°C
$186 Vol.
28%
31°C
$0 Vol.
8%
32°C
$32 Vol.
5%
33°C
$10 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a high of 29°C on August 8, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent model consensus and daily outlooks from the agency show highs stabilizing near 29°C amid the southwest monsoon (habagat), with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rain showers or thunderstorms expected to moderate peak temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation.
August climatology supports this range, with historical average highs around 30–31°C (86–88°F) and high humidity typical of the wet season. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions noted in sub-seasonal forecasts for early August have not translated into extreme heat, as recent actual maxima in the region have hovered near 30–33°C without strong heatwave drivers. The 30°C bin (27.5%) remains viable if skies clear more than anticipated, while lower outcomes like 28°C gain support from increased rainfall likelihood.
No major tropical cyclone influences are projected to alter steering patterns or intensification in the immediate window, keeping resolution centered on these mid-20s to low-30s thresholds. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$472End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a high of 29°C on August 8, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent model consensus and daily outlooks from the agency show highs stabilizing near 29°C amid the southwest monsoon (habagat), with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rain showers or thunderstorms expected to moderate peak temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation.
August climatology supports this range, with historical average highs around 30–31°C (86–88°F) and high humidity typical of the wet season. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions noted in sub-seasonal forecasts for early August have not translated into extreme heat, as recent actual maxima in the region have hovered near 30–33°C without strong heatwave drivers. The 30°C bin (27.5%) remains viable if skies clear more than anticipated, while lower outcomes like 28°C gain support from increased rainfall likelihood.
No major tropical cyclone influences are projected to alter steering patterns or intensification in the immediate window, keeping resolution centered on these mid-20s to low-30s thresholds. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$472End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a high of 29°C on August 8, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent model consensus and daily outlooks from the agency show highs stabilizing near 29°C amid the southwest monsoon (habagat), with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rain showers or thunderstorms expected to moderate peak temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. August climatology supports this range, with historical average highs around 30–31°C (86–88°F) and high humidity typical of the wet season. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions noted in sub-seasonal forecasts for early August have not translated into extreme heat, as recent actual maxima in the region have hovered near 30–33°C without strong heatwave drivers. The 30°C bin (27.5%) remains viable if skies clear more than anticipated, while lower outcomes like 28°C gain support from increased rainfall likelihood. No major tropical cyclone influences are projected to alter steering patterns or intensification in the immediate window, keeping resolution centered on these mid-20s to low-30s thresholds. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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