Official forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's highest temperature on August 6 will likely reach 29–30°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high rain chances (40–90%) and thick cloud cover suppressing daytime peaks. These conditions align with typical August climatology in the region, where humidity exceeds 80% and frequent showers limit solar heating, keeping readings near or slightly below seasonal averages of 30–31°C. Recent monsoon-enhanced rainfall patterns through early August have reinforced this cooler profile, explaining the market's heavy weighting toward 29°C and 30°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will refine the final reading before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 6?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 6?
29°C 46%
30°C 27%
28°C 18%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
18%
29°C
46%
30°C
27%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 46%
30°C 27%
28°C 18%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
25°C or below
$226 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$59 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$245 Vol.
3%
28°C
$144 Vol.
18%
29°C
$1,900 Vol.
46%
30°C
$582 Vol.
27%
31°C
$307 Vol.
5%
32°C
$116 Vol.
1%
33°C
$468 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$109 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's highest temperature on August 6 will likely reach 29–30°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high rain chances (40–90%) and thick cloud cover suppressing daytime peaks. These conditions align with typical August climatology in the region, where humidity exceeds 80% and frequent showers limit solar heating, keeping readings near or slightly below seasonal averages of 30–31°C. Recent monsoon-enhanced rainfall patterns through early August have reinforced this cooler profile, explaining the market's heavy weighting toward 29°C and 30°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will refine the final reading before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$4,259End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's highest temperature on August 6 will likely reach 29–30°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high rain chances (40–90%) and thick cloud cover suppressing daytime peaks. These conditions align with typical August climatology in the region, where humidity exceeds 80% and frequent showers limit solar heating, keeping readings near or slightly below seasonal averages of 30–31°C. Recent monsoon-enhanced rainfall patterns through early August have reinforced this cooler profile, explaining the market's heavy weighting toward 29°C and 30°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will refine the final reading before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,259End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's highest temperature on August 6 will likely reach 29–30°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high rain chances (40–90%) and thick cloud cover suppressing daytime peaks. These conditions align with typical August climatology in the region, where humidity exceeds 80% and frequent showers limit solar heating, keeping readings near or slightly below seasonal averages of 30–31°C. Recent monsoon-enhanced rainfall patterns through early August have reinforced this cooler profile, explaining the market's heavy weighting toward 29°C and 30°C outcomes over higher thresholds. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will refine the final reading before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions