Latest ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and DWD shows a building thermal ridge with southerly flow supporting daytime highs of 32–35 °C in Munich on August 10, placing the market-implied edge on 33–34 °C. Model spread remains modest, with slight differences in the timing of peak insolation and any late-day cloud development or weak frontal passage creating the narrow probability gap between those two bins. Recent verification of similar late-summer setups, including the 36 °C observed on August 3, reinforces trader confidence in values above the seasonal 23–25 °C climatology, while the low odds on 35 °C+ reflect limited upside potential absent stronger subsidence. Updated high-resolution runs and the next DWD briefing will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 10?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?
34°C 37%
33°C 34%
35°C 17%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
30°C or below
2%
31°C
4%
32°C
12%
33°C
34%
34°C
37%
35°C
17%
36°C
3%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 37%
33°C 34%
35°C 17%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
30°C or below
$12 Vol.
2%
31°C
$0 Vol.
4%
32°C
$12 Vol.
12%
33°C
$194 Vol.
34%
34°C
$14 Vol.
37%
35°C
$45 Vol.
17%
36°C
$5 Vol.
3%
37°C
$5 Vol.
2%
38°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$12 Vol.
1%
40°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and DWD shows a building thermal ridge with southerly flow supporting daytime highs of 32–35 °C in Munich on August 10, placing the market-implied edge on 33–34 °C. Model spread remains modest, with slight differences in the timing of peak insolation and any late-day cloud development or weak frontal passage creating the narrow probability gap between those two bins. Recent verification of similar late-summer setups, including the 36 °C observed on August 3, reinforces trader confidence in values above the seasonal 23–25 °C climatology, while the low odds on 35 °C+ reflect limited upside potential absent stronger subsidence. Updated high-resolution runs and the next DWD briefing will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$323End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and DWD shows a building thermal ridge with southerly flow supporting daytime highs of 32–35 °C in Munich on August 10, placing the market-implied edge on 33–34 °C. Model spread remains modest, with slight differences in the timing of peak insolation and any late-day cloud development or weak frontal passage creating the narrow probability gap between those two bins. Recent verification of similar late-summer setups, including the 36 °C observed on August 3, reinforces trader confidence in values above the seasonal 23–25 °C climatology, while the low odds on 35 °C+ reflect limited upside potential absent stronger subsidence. Updated high-resolution runs and the next DWD briefing will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$323End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and DWD shows a building thermal ridge with southerly flow supporting daytime highs of 32–35 °C in Munich on August 10, placing the market-implied edge on 33–34 °C. Model spread remains modest, with slight differences in the timing of peak insolation and any late-day cloud development or weak frontal passage creating the narrow probability gap between those two bins. Recent verification of similar late-summer setups, including the 36 °C observed on August 3, reinforces trader confidence in values above the seasonal 23–25 °C climatology, while the low odds on 35 °C+ reflect limited upside potential absent stronger subsidence. Updated high-resolution runs and the next DWD briefing will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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