Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and DWD models indicate a peak temperature in Munich on August 9 most likely between 32–34°C under a stable high-pressure regime with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, driving the close market split between the 33°C and 34°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include small variations in boundary-layer mixing, incoming solar radiation under any developing afternoon cumulus, and the precise timing of a weak frontal passage that could enhance or suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical August extremes in the region average near 23°C but have seen frequent 30°C+ days this summer, underscoring the role of current large-scale patterns in elevating baseline expectations while leaving room for model spread on the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 9?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 9?
33°C 35%
34°C 28%
32°C 16%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
6%
32°C
16%
33°C
35%
34°C
28%
35°C
5%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 35%
34°C 28%
32°C 16%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
27°C or below
$2,140 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$387 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$9 Vol.
2%
30°C
$9 Vol.
3%
31°C
$3 Vol.
6%
32°C
$203 Vol.
16%
33°C
$141 Vol.
35%
34°C
$7 Vol.
28%
35°C
$1 Vol.
5%
36°C
$12 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$18 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and DWD models indicate a peak temperature in Munich on August 9 most likely between 32–34°C under a stable high-pressure regime with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, driving the close market split between the 33°C and 34°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include small variations in boundary-layer mixing, incoming solar radiation under any developing afternoon cumulus, and the precise timing of a weak frontal passage that could enhance or suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical August extremes in the region average near 23°C but have seen frequent 30°C+ days this summer, underscoring the role of current large-scale patterns in elevating baseline expectations while leaving room for model spread on the exact threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,929End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and DWD models indicate a peak temperature in Munich on August 9 most likely between 32–34°C under a stable high-pressure regime with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, driving the close market split between the 33°C and 34°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include small variations in boundary-layer mixing, incoming solar radiation under any developing afternoon cumulus, and the precise timing of a weak frontal passage that could enhance or suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical August extremes in the region average near 23°C but have seen frequent 30°C+ days this summer, underscoring the role of current large-scale patterns in elevating baseline expectations while leaving room for model spread on the exact threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,929End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and DWD models indicate a peak temperature in Munich on August 9 most likely between 32–34°C under a stable high-pressure regime with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, driving the close market split between the 33°C and 34°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include small variations in boundary-layer mixing, incoming solar radiation under any developing afternoon cumulus, and the precise timing of a weak frontal passage that could enhance or suppress the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical August extremes in the region average near 23°C but have seen frequent 30°C+ days this summer, underscoring the role of current large-scale patterns in elevating baseline expectations while leaving room for model spread on the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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