Trader sentiment for the August 10 Chengdu high centers on short-term model consensus projecting mid-30s peaks, with 36–37°C leading at combined ~68% implied probability due to typical Sichuan Basin summer conditions. High humidity from monsoon moisture and topographic trapping of warm air often elevates perceived and measured maxima, while variable cloud cover and scattered showers can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees. Recent cooler readings around 29°C on August 6 highlight sensitivity to transient patterns, yet climatological baselines of 30–34°C support upside potential absent strong cooling advection. Updated CMA and global ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds, as small shifts in subsidence or rainfall timing differentiate outcomes near the market's tight 35–38°C cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 10?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 10?
36°C 37%
37°C 30%
35°C 19%
38°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
4%
33°C
5%
34°C
5%
35°C
19%
36°C
37%
37°C
30%
38°C
12%
39°C or higher
4%
36°C 37%
37°C 30%
35°C 19%
38°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
29°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
30°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
4%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C
$6 Vol.
5%
34°C
$12 Vol.
5%
35°C
$11 Vol.
19%
36°C
$51 Vol.
37%
37°C
$44 Vol.
30%
38°C
$112 Vol.
12%
39°C or higher
$10 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for the August 10 Chengdu high centers on short-term model consensus projecting mid-30s peaks, with 36–37°C leading at combined ~68% implied probability due to typical Sichuan Basin summer conditions. High humidity from monsoon moisture and topographic trapping of warm air often elevates perceived and measured maxima, while variable cloud cover and scattered showers can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees. Recent cooler readings around 29°C on August 6 highlight sensitivity to transient patterns, yet climatological baselines of 30–34°C support upside potential absent strong cooling advection. Updated CMA and global ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds, as small shifts in subsidence or rainfall timing differentiate outcomes near the market's tight 35–38°C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$301End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for the August 10 Chengdu high centers on short-term model consensus projecting mid-30s peaks, with 36–37°C leading at combined ~68% implied probability due to typical Sichuan Basin summer conditions. High humidity from monsoon moisture and topographic trapping of warm air often elevates perceived and measured maxima, while variable cloud cover and scattered showers can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees. Recent cooler readings around 29°C on August 6 highlight sensitivity to transient patterns, yet climatological baselines of 30–34°C support upside potential absent strong cooling advection. Updated CMA and global ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds, as small shifts in subsidence or rainfall timing differentiate outcomes near the market's tight 35–38°C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$301End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the August 10 Chengdu high centers on short-term model consensus projecting mid-30s peaks, with 36–37°C leading at combined ~68% implied probability due to typical Sichuan Basin summer conditions. High humidity from monsoon moisture and topographic trapping of warm air often elevates perceived and measured maxima, while variable cloud cover and scattered showers can suppress or enhance daytime heating by several degrees. Recent cooler readings around 29°C on August 6 highlight sensitivity to transient patterns, yet climatological baselines of 30–34°C support upside potential absent strong cooling advection. Updated CMA and global ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds, as small shifts in subsidence or rainfall timing differentiate outcomes near the market's tight 35–38°C cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions