Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the near-even split between 27°C and 28°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum. Ensemble guidance highlights modest differences in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a building high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can readily shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. These levels exceed the long-term August climatological average high of roughly 21–22 °C. Fresh model runs and updated observational data over the next 48 hours should further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?
27°C 36%
28°C 33%
29°C 17%
26°C 9%
NEW
$12,653 Vol.
NEW
$12,653 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
9%
27°C
36%
28°C
33%
29°C
17%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 36%
28°C 33%
29°C 17%
26°C 9%
NEW
$12,653 Vol.
NEW
$12,653 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$452 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$582 Vol.
1%
25°C
$749 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,958 Vol.
9%
27°C
$1,132 Vol.
36%
28°C
$5,910 Vol.
33%
29°C
$1,755 Vol.
17%
30°C
$238 Vol.
4%
31°C
$104 Vol.
2%
32°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$44 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the near-even split between 27°C and 28°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum. Ensemble guidance highlights modest differences in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a building high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can readily shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. These levels exceed the long-term August climatological average high of roughly 21–22 °C. Fresh model runs and updated observational data over the next 48 hours should further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$12,653End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the near-even split between 27°C and 28°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum. Ensemble guidance highlights modest differences in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a building high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can readily shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. These levels exceed the long-term August climatological average high of roughly 21–22 °C. Fresh model runs and updated observational data over the next 48 hours should further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,653End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models drives the near-even split between 27°C and 28°C as the leading market-implied outcomes for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum. Ensemble guidance highlights modest differences in boundary-layer heating and southerly warm-air advection beneath a building high-pressure ridge, where minor variations in cloud cover, mixing depth, and the timing of any diurnal sea-breeze circulation can readily shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. These levels exceed the long-term August climatological average high of roughly 21–22 °C. Fresh model runs and updated observational data over the next 48 hours should further refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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