Severe drought and record-low water levels on the Danube, driven by prolonged heat and minimal rainfall across central Europe, have disrupted shipping, hydropower, and nuclear plant operations in Hungary, Romania, and neighboring countries as of early August 2026. Satellite data and gauge readings confirm the river's sharp decline, with Budapest levels hitting historic lows. Traders assign the highest probabilities to mid-to-late September and October recovery windows, reflecting seasonal expectations for autumn precipitation to restore flows, while near-term relief remains unlikely. The tight spread between leading outcomes stems from weather uncertainty and variable basin runoff patterns; sustained dry conditions or early heavy rains could quickly shift sentiment toward later or earlier resolution periods.