Current forecast consensus from NWS and major models places the overnight minimum in New York City on August 12 in the mid-70s, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and urban heat retention. Trader sentiment clusters on 74–75°F and 76–77°F because small differences in model dew-point guidance, wind speed, or any late-day shower timing can shift the exact low by a degree or two within that narrow range. Broader August warmth and the absence of a strong cold front keep lower bins under 10% implied probability, while the tight spread between the top two outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in the final model runs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 12?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 12?
74-75°F 28%
72-73°F 19%
76-77°F 18%
80-81°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
5%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
10%
82°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 28%
72-73°F 19%
76-77°F 18%
80-81°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
63°F or below
$24 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$22 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$28 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
8%
72-73°F
$28 Vol.
19%
74-75°F
$31 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$1 Vol.
7%
80-81°F
$22 Vol.
10%
82°F or higher
$22 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from NWS and major models places the overnight minimum in New York City on August 12 in the mid-70s, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and urban heat retention. Trader sentiment clusters on 74–75°F and 76–77°F because small differences in model dew-point guidance, wind speed, or any late-day shower timing can shift the exact low by a degree or two within that narrow range. Broader August warmth and the absence of a strong cold front keep lower bins under 10% implied probability, while the tight spread between the top two outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in the final model runs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$160End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from NWS and major models places the overnight minimum in New York City on August 12 in the mid-70s, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and urban heat retention. Trader sentiment clusters on 74–75°F and 76–77°F because small differences in model dew-point guidance, wind speed, or any late-day shower timing can shift the exact low by a degree or two within that narrow range. Broader August warmth and the absence of a strong cold front keep lower bins under 10% implied probability, while the tight spread between the top two outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in the final model runs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$160End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from NWS and major models places the overnight minimum in New York City on August 12 in the mid-70s, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and urban heat retention. Trader sentiment clusters on 74–75°F and 76–77°F because small differences in model dew-point guidance, wind speed, or any late-day shower timing can shift the exact low by a degree or two within that narrow range. Broader August warmth and the absence of a strong cold front keep lower bins under 10% implied probability, while the tight spread between the top two outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in the final model runs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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