Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus for central Texas indicate highs near 100–101°F in Austin on August 12 under a strong upper-level ridge, with mostly sunny skies and low precipitation chances sustaining daytime heating. Typical early-August normals hover around 98°F, but current conditions feature above-average temperatures driven by subsidence and southerly flow, pushing afternoon peaks into the triple digits at times. Traders appear to weight the leading 100–101°F bin most heavily because official guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability and little evidence of stronger cooling or convective suppression that would shift the maximum lower or higher. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 12?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 12?
100-101°F 57%
98-99°F 19%
102-103°F 17%
96-97°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
6%
98-99°F
19%
100-101°F
57%
102-103°F
17%
104-105°F
3%
106-107°F
3%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 57%
98-99°F 19%
102-103°F 17%
96-97°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
91°F or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$140 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$28 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
6%
98-99°F
$130 Vol.
19%
100-101°F
$74 Vol.
57%
102-103°F
$41 Vol.
17%
104-105°F
$217 Vol.
3%
106-107°F
$55 Vol.
3%
108-109°F
$127 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus for central Texas indicate highs near 100–101°F in Austin on August 12 under a strong upper-level ridge, with mostly sunny skies and low precipitation chances sustaining daytime heating. Typical early-August normals hover around 98°F, but current conditions feature above-average temperatures driven by subsidence and southerly flow, pushing afternoon peaks into the triple digits at times. Traders appear to weight the leading 100–101°F bin most heavily because official guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability and little evidence of stronger cooling or convective suppression that would shift the maximum lower or higher. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$845End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus for central Texas indicate highs near 100–101°F in Austin on August 12 under a strong upper-level ridge, with mostly sunny skies and low precipitation chances sustaining daytime heating. Typical early-August normals hover around 98°F, but current conditions feature above-average temperatures driven by subsidence and southerly flow, pushing afternoon peaks into the triple digits at times. Traders appear to weight the leading 100–101°F bin most heavily because official guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability and little evidence of stronger cooling or convective suppression that would shift the maximum lower or higher. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$845End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus for central Texas indicate highs near 100–101°F in Austin on August 12 under a strong upper-level ridge, with mostly sunny skies and low precipitation chances sustaining daytime heating. Typical early-August normals hover around 98°F, but current conditions feature above-average temperatures driven by subsidence and southerly flow, pushing afternoon peaks into the triple digits at times. Traders appear to weight the leading 100–101°F bin most heavily because official guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability and little evidence of stronger cooling or convective suppression that would shift the maximum lower or higher. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the final inputs for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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