Latest National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daytime high in the mid-80s for Central Park on August 12, driven by moderating southerly flow, increased cloud cover, and possible sea-breeze influence that caps peak heating after several days near or above 88°F. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 86–87°F bin (40.5% implied probability) and secondary support for 88–89°F (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of typical mid-August variability around the 83°F climatological average. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on timing of any afternoon convection that could trim the peak by a degree or two, while historical analogs and current atmospheric indices support only a modest chance of reaching the low 90s. Updated forecast discussions and morning observations tomorrow will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 12?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 12?
86-87°F 41%
88-89°F 31%
84-85°F 23%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
41%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 41%
88-89°F 31%
84-85°F 23%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
$25 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$26 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$119 Vol.
23%
86-87°F
$133 Vol.
41%
88-89°F
$202 Vol.
31%
90-91°F
$196 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$85 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$30 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daytime high in the mid-80s for Central Park on August 12, driven by moderating southerly flow, increased cloud cover, and possible sea-breeze influence that caps peak heating after several days near or above 88°F. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 86–87°F bin (40.5% implied probability) and secondary support for 88–89°F (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of typical mid-August variability around the 83°F climatological average. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on timing of any afternoon convection that could trim the peak by a degree or two, while historical analogs and current atmospheric indices support only a modest chance of reaching the low 90s. Updated forecast discussions and morning observations tomorrow will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$852End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daytime high in the mid-80s for Central Park on August 12, driven by moderating southerly flow, increased cloud cover, and possible sea-breeze influence that caps peak heating after several days near or above 88°F. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 86–87°F bin (40.5% implied probability) and secondary support for 88–89°F (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of typical mid-August variability around the 83°F climatological average. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on timing of any afternoon convection that could trim the peak by a degree or two, while historical analogs and current atmospheric indices support only a modest chance of reaching the low 90s. Updated forecast discussions and morning observations tomorrow will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$852End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daytime high in the mid-80s for Central Park on August 12, driven by moderating southerly flow, increased cloud cover, and possible sea-breeze influence that caps peak heating after several days near or above 88°F. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 86–87°F bin (40.5% implied probability) and secondary support for 88–89°F (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of typical mid-August variability around the 83°F climatological average. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on timing of any afternoon convection that could trim the peak by a degree or two, while historical analogs and current atmospheric indices support only a modest chance of reaching the low 90s. Updated forecast discussions and morning observations tomorrow will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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