**Market-implied odds center on 74–77°F for Seattle’s highest temperature on August 12, 2026, reflecting tight model consensus around a classic late-summer marine regime.** National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate highs near 75–77°F at Sea-Tac (KSEA), driven by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific and a moderating marine layer that limits afternoon heating. This keeps temperatures close to seasonal norms despite the broader 2026 summer running warmer than average across western Washington. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any stratus burn-off, northwest wind speeds, and exact positioning of the thermal trough; modest shifts in these can move the peak by 2–3°F, explaining the near-even split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins. No strong offshore flow or ridge amplification is forecast to push readings into the upper 70s or beyond, while cloud cover and sea-breeze effects make cooler outcomes unlikely. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model cycles on August 11 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on August 12?
Highest temperature in Seattle on August 12?
76-77°F 36%
74-75°F 31%
70-71°F 14%
78-79°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
36%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
4%
86°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 36%
74-75°F 31%
70-71°F 14%
78-79°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
67°F or below
$140 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$12 Vol.
6%
70-71°F
$42 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$18 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$41 Vol.
31%
76-77°F
$20 Vol.
36%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
12%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$22 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
4%
86°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds center on 74–77°F for Seattle’s highest temperature on August 12, 2026, reflecting tight model consensus around a classic late-summer marine regime.**
National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate highs near 75–77°F at Sea-Tac (KSEA), driven by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific and a moderating marine layer that limits afternoon heating. This keeps temperatures close to seasonal norms despite the broader 2026 summer running warmer than average across western Washington. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any stratus burn-off, northwest wind speeds, and exact positioning of the thermal trough; modest shifts in these can move the peak by 2–3°F, explaining the near-even split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins. No strong offshore flow or ridge amplification is forecast to push readings into the upper 70s or beyond, while cloud cover and sea-breeze effects make cooler outcomes unlikely. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model cycles on August 11 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$311End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds center on 74–77°F for Seattle’s highest temperature on August 12, 2026, reflecting tight model consensus around a classic late-summer marine regime.**
National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate highs near 75–77°F at Sea-Tac (KSEA), driven by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific and a moderating marine layer that limits afternoon heating. This keeps temperatures close to seasonal norms despite the broader 2026 summer running warmer than average across western Washington. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any stratus burn-off, northwest wind speeds, and exact positioning of the thermal trough; modest shifts in these can move the peak by 2–3°F, explaining the near-even split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins. No strong offshore flow or ridge amplification is forecast to push readings into the upper 70s or beyond, while cloud cover and sea-breeze effects make cooler outcomes unlikely. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model cycles on August 11 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$311End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds center on 74–77°F for Seattle’s highest temperature on August 12, 2026, reflecting tight model consensus around a classic late-summer marine regime.** National Weather Service guidance and recent model runs indicate highs near 75–77°F at Sea-Tac (KSEA), driven by persistent onshore flow from the Pacific and a moderating marine layer that limits afternoon heating. This keeps temperatures close to seasonal norms despite the broader 2026 summer running warmer than average across western Washington. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any stratus burn-off, northwest wind speeds, and exact positioning of the thermal trough; modest shifts in these can move the peak by 2–3°F, explaining the near-even split between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins. No strong offshore flow or ridge amplification is forecast to push readings into the upper 70s or beyond, while cloud cover and sea-breeze effects make cooler outcomes unlikely. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model cycles on August 11 remain the primary near-term catalysts that could refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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