Traders have clustered bets on 74–77°F lows for August 10 in NYC because current model consensus from NWS and others points to a warm, humid air mass with high dew points and light southwest winds limiting overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have seen minimums holding in the mid-70s amid above-average August temperatures, with partly cloudy skies and minimal frontal passage expected to maintain similar conditions through the night of the 9th. Key variables creating the tight spread between 74–75°F and 76–77°F include small differences in forecast cloud cover, wind mixing, and urban heat island retention, while probabilities drop sharply below 72°F or above 79°F absent a stronger cool-air intrusion. Updated NWS model runs and local observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 10?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 10?
76-77°F 26%
74-75°F 23%
78-79°F 19%
72-73°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
5%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
6%
82°F or higher
2%
76-77°F 26%
74-75°F 23%
78-79°F 19%
72-73°F 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
63°F or below
$31 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$31 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$1 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$32 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$52 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$44 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$133 Vol.
22%
76-77°F
$32 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$54 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$40 Vol.
6%
82°F or higher
$62 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have clustered bets on 74–77°F lows for August 10 in NYC because current model consensus from NWS and others points to a warm, humid air mass with high dew points and light southwest winds limiting overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have seen minimums holding in the mid-70s amid above-average August temperatures, with partly cloudy skies and minimal frontal passage expected to maintain similar conditions through the night of the 9th. Key variables creating the tight spread between 74–75°F and 76–77°F include small differences in forecast cloud cover, wind mixing, and urban heat island retention, while probabilities drop sharply below 72°F or above 79°F absent a stronger cool-air intrusion. Updated NWS model runs and local observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$512End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have clustered bets on 74–77°F lows for August 10 in NYC because current model consensus from NWS and others points to a warm, humid air mass with high dew points and light southwest winds limiting overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have seen minimums holding in the mid-70s amid above-average August temperatures, with partly cloudy skies and minimal frontal passage expected to maintain similar conditions through the night of the 9th. Key variables creating the tight spread between 74–75°F and 76–77°F include small differences in forecast cloud cover, wind mixing, and urban heat island retention, while probabilities drop sharply below 72°F or above 79°F absent a stronger cool-air intrusion. Updated NWS model runs and local observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$512End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have clustered bets on 74–77°F lows for August 10 in NYC because current model consensus from NWS and others points to a warm, humid air mass with high dew points and light southwest winds limiting overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have seen minimums holding in the mid-70s amid above-average August temperatures, with partly cloudy skies and minimal frontal passage expected to maintain similar conditions through the night of the 9th. Key variables creating the tight spread between 74–75°F and 76–77°F include small differences in forecast cloud cover, wind mixing, and urban heat island retention, while probabilities drop sharply below 72°F or above 79°F absent a stronger cool-air intrusion. Updated NWS model runs and local observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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