Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo’s overnight low reaching 22°C on August 11 under a persistent Pacific High, increased cloud cover, and rising humidity that limits radiational cooling. This places the reading slightly below the long-term August minimum of 23.7°C. Model consensus across official sources has converged on this threshold, with only minor 1°C variations possible from shifts in cloud timing or precipitation timing. Traders have priced in near-certainty because resolution hinges on verified station observations rather than forecasts, and current conditions leave little room for the low to deviate meaningfully. Clearer skies or drier air could theoretically allow an extra degree of cooling, though latest guidance shows no such development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
22°C 100%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$16,125 Vol.
$16,125 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$16,125 Vol.
$16,125 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
$323 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,045 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,489 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,701 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,460 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$4,108 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,330 Vol.
No
25°C
$557 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,023 Vol.
No
27°C
$678 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$410 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo’s overnight low reaching 22°C on August 11 under a persistent Pacific High, increased cloud cover, and rising humidity that limits radiational cooling. This places the reading slightly below the long-term August minimum of 23.7°C. Model consensus across official sources has converged on this threshold, with only minor 1°C variations possible from shifts in cloud timing or precipitation timing. Traders have priced in near-certainty because resolution hinges on verified station observations rather than forecasts, and current conditions leave little room for the low to deviate meaningfully. Clearer skies or drier air could theoretically allow an extra degree of cooling, though latest guidance shows no such development.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$16,125End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo’s overnight low reaching 22°C on August 11 under a persistent Pacific High, increased cloud cover, and rising humidity that limits radiational cooling. This places the reading slightly below the long-term August minimum of 23.7°C. Model consensus across official sources has converged on this threshold, with only minor 1°C variations possible from shifts in cloud timing or precipitation timing. Traders have priced in near-certainty because resolution hinges on verified station observations rather than forecasts, and current conditions leave little room for the low to deviate meaningfully. Clearer skies or drier air could theoretically allow an extra degree of cooling, though latest guidance shows no such development.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,125End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo’s overnight low reaching 22°C on August 11 under a persistent Pacific High, increased cloud cover, and rising humidity that limits radiational cooling. This places the reading slightly below the long-term August minimum of 23.7°C. Model consensus across official sources has converged on this threshold, with only minor 1°C variations possible from shifts in cloud timing or precipitation timing. Traders have priced in near-certainty because resolution hinges on verified station observations rather than forecasts, and current conditions leave little room for the low to deviate meaningfully. Clearer skies or drier air could theoretically allow an extra degree of cooling, though latest guidance shows no such development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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