**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C for Tokyo on September 26, 2026, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (18°C at 48.5%, 19°C at 27.5%, 17°C at 17%).** Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS-based models, indicate overnight lows of 17–19°C under persistent rain and northerly flow associated with a frontal system. This setup advects cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and precipitation suppress radiative cooling contrasts but keep surface temperatures from rebounding. Daytime highs are expected to reach only 20–21°C amid 95%+ rain probabilities and winds shifting northerly at 10–20 km/h. These conditions match late-September climatology for Tokyo, where average minimums trend 17–19°C as seasonal cooling accelerates. Recent model runs show stable agreement on this range, with limited spread in ensemble guidance, supporting trader positioning around the 17–19°C cluster. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model cycles over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 26?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 26?
18°C 49%
19°C 28%
14°C or below 27%
16°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
14°C or below
27%
15°C
20%
16°C
24%
17°C
17%
18°C
49%
19°C
28%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
18°C 49%
19°C 28%
14°C or below 27%
16°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$0 Vol.
17%
18°C
$69 Vol.
49%
19°C
$89 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C for Tokyo on September 26, 2026, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (18°C at 48.5%, 19°C at 27.5%, 17°C at 17%).**
Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS-based models, indicate overnight lows of 17–19°C under persistent rain and northerly flow associated with a frontal system. This setup advects cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and precipitation suppress radiative cooling contrasts but keep surface temperatures from rebounding. Daytime highs are expected to reach only 20–21°C amid 95%+ rain probabilities and winds shifting northerly at 10–20 km/h.
These conditions match late-September climatology for Tokyo, where average minimums trend 17–19°C as seasonal cooling accelerates. Recent model runs show stable agreement on this range, with limited spread in ensemble guidance, supporting trader positioning around the 17–19°C cluster. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model cycles over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$158End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C for Tokyo on September 26, 2026, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (18°C at 48.5%, 19°C at 27.5%, 17°C at 17%).**
Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS-based models, indicate overnight lows of 17–19°C under persistent rain and northerly flow associated with a frontal system. This setup advects cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and precipitation suppress radiative cooling contrasts but keep surface temperatures from rebounding. Daytime highs are expected to reach only 20–21°C amid 95%+ rain probabilities and winds shifting northerly at 10–20 km/h.
These conditions match late-September climatology for Tokyo, where average minimums trend 17–19°C as seasonal cooling accelerates. Recent model runs show stable agreement on this range, with limited spread in ensemble guidance, supporting trader positioning around the 17–19°C cluster. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model cycles over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$158End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47de9d...**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 18°C for Tokyo on September 26, 2026, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (18°C at 48.5%, 19°C at 27.5%, 17°C at 17%).** Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS-based models, indicate overnight lows of 17–19°C under persistent rain and northerly flow associated with a frontal system. This setup advects cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and precipitation suppress radiative cooling contrasts but keep surface temperatures from rebounding. Daytime highs are expected to reach only 20–21°C amid 95%+ rain probabilities and winds shifting northerly at 10–20 km/h. These conditions match late-September climatology for Tokyo, where average minimums trend 17–19°C as seasonal cooling accelerates. Recent model runs show stable agreement on this range, with limited spread in ensemble guidance, supporting trader positioning around the 17–19°C cluster. Upcoming Japan Meteorological Agency updates and refined model cycles over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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