Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a northerly flow and frontal system will bring widespread rain and reduced insolation to Tokyo on September 26, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a maximum near 20–22°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90%, and northerly winds around 10–15 km/h are expected to suppress temperatures below recent seasonal norms of 25–28°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with ensemble runs favoring the lower end of the distribution due to the strength of the cool advection. Updated guidance from official agencies in the next 48 hours could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or wind shifts alter surface energy balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 26?
22°C 27%
23°C 26%
21°C 25%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
3%
20°C
13%
21°C
25%
22°C
27%
23°C
26%
24°C
12%
25°C
9%
26°C
10%
27°C
7%
28°C or higher
1%
22°C 27%
23°C 26%
21°C 25%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 26, 2026
18°C or below
$50 Vol.
3%
19°C
$9 Vol.
3%
20°C
$5 Vol.
13%
21°C
$175 Vol.
25%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$35 Vol.
12%
25°C
$18 Vol.
9%
26°C
$0 Vol.
10%
27°C
$0 Vol.
7%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a northerly flow and frontal system will bring widespread rain and reduced insolation to Tokyo on September 26, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a maximum near 20–22°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90%, and northerly winds around 10–15 km/h are expected to suppress temperatures below recent seasonal norms of 25–28°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with ensemble runs favoring the lower end of the distribution due to the strength of the cool advection. Updated guidance from official agencies in the next 48 hours could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or wind shifts alter surface energy balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$293End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a northerly flow and frontal system will bring widespread rain and reduced insolation to Tokyo on September 26, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a maximum near 20–22°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90%, and northerly winds around 10–15 km/h are expected to suppress temperatures below recent seasonal norms of 25–28°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with ensemble runs favoring the lower end of the distribution due to the strength of the cool advection. Updated guidance from official agencies in the next 48 hours could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or wind shifts alter surface energy balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$293End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a northerly flow and frontal system will bring widespread rain and reduced insolation to Tokyo on September 26, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a maximum near 20–22°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90%, and northerly winds around 10–15 km/h are expected to suppress temperatures below recent seasonal norms of 25–28°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with ensemble runs favoring the lower end of the distribution due to the strength of the cool advection. Updated guidance from official agencies in the next 48 hours could refine the exact peak, particularly if precipitation timing or wind shifts alter surface energy balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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