Ongoing heatwave conditions across the Korean Peninsula, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and easterly flow, have produced Seoul-area daily maxima near or above 35°C in early August 2026, supporting the market's leading 33–35°C cluster. Korea Meteorological Administration observations and short-range model guidance indicate modest moderation possible on August 9 from increased cloud cover and isolated showers, which could cap the Incheon station reading at 33–34°C rather than sustaining the extreme values seen earlier in the month. Ensemble spread in temperature forecasts remains narrow due to limited synoptic variability this close to the event, while historical August baselines for Incheon (typical highs 28–31°C) underscore how the current anomaly elevates probabilities for the upper end of the distribution. Updated KMA and global model runs ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 9?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 9?
34°C 34%
33°C 27%
35°C 19%
32°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
7%
33°C
27%
34°C
34%
35°C
19%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 34%
33°C 27%
35°C 19%
32°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
29°C or below
$130 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$46 Vol.
1%
31°C
$69 Vol.
5%
32°C
$20 Vol.
7%
33°C
$144 Vol.
27%
34°C
$527 Vol.
34%
35°C
$146 Vol.
19%
36°C
$139 Vol.
6%
37°C
$74 Vol.
2%
38°C
$9 Vol.
2%
39°C or higher
$305 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing heatwave conditions across the Korean Peninsula, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and easterly flow, have produced Seoul-area daily maxima near or above 35°C in early August 2026, supporting the market's leading 33–35°C cluster. Korea Meteorological Administration observations and short-range model guidance indicate modest moderation possible on August 9 from increased cloud cover and isolated showers, which could cap the Incheon station reading at 33–34°C rather than sustaining the extreme values seen earlier in the month. Ensemble spread in temperature forecasts remains narrow due to limited synoptic variability this close to the event, while historical August baselines for Incheon (typical highs 28–31°C) underscore how the current anomaly elevates probabilities for the upper end of the distribution. Updated KMA and global model runs ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,609End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing heatwave conditions across the Korean Peninsula, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and easterly flow, have produced Seoul-area daily maxima near or above 35°C in early August 2026, supporting the market's leading 33–35°C cluster. Korea Meteorological Administration observations and short-range model guidance indicate modest moderation possible on August 9 from increased cloud cover and isolated showers, which could cap the Incheon station reading at 33–34°C rather than sustaining the extreme values seen earlier in the month. Ensemble spread in temperature forecasts remains narrow due to limited synoptic variability this close to the event, while historical August baselines for Incheon (typical highs 28–31°C) underscore how the current anomaly elevates probabilities for the upper end of the distribution. Updated KMA and global model runs ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,609End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing heatwave conditions across the Korean Peninsula, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and easterly flow, have produced Seoul-area daily maxima near or above 35°C in early August 2026, supporting the market's leading 33–35°C cluster. Korea Meteorological Administration observations and short-range model guidance indicate modest moderation possible on August 9 from increased cloud cover and isolated showers, which could cap the Incheon station reading at 33–34°C rather than sustaining the extreme values seen earlier in the month. Ensemble spread in temperature forecasts remains narrow due to limited synoptic variability this close to the event, while historical August baselines for Incheon (typical highs 28–31°C) underscore how the current anomaly elevates probabilities for the upper end of the distribution. Updated KMA and global model runs ahead of the weekend will be the key catalyst for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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