Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 11, driven by extensive cloud cover, thundershowers, and moisture influx associated with approaching Typhoon Dolphin. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight while sustaining high humidity, aligning with observed trends where recent daily lows have hovered between 26–28°C amid similar weather patterns. The market's heavy weighting toward 27°C (47% implied probability) and 28°C (31%) reflects trader assessment of ensemble guidance favoring this range over cooler or warmer outliers, though forecast revisions from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift outcomes if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change. Historical August baselines around 25–26°C provide context, but current synoptic influences elevate near-term expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
27°C 47%
28°C 31%
26°C 14%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
7%
24°C
4%
25°C
5%
26°C
14%
27°C
47%
28°C
31%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 47%
28°C 31%
26°C 14%
29°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
22°C or below
$630 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
7%
24°C
$11 Vol.
4%
25°C
$10 Vol.
5%
26°C
$21 Vol.
14%
27°C
$38 Vol.
47%
28°C
$10 Vol.
31%
29°C
$20 Vol.
8%
30°C
$10 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 11, driven by extensive cloud cover, thundershowers, and moisture influx associated with approaching Typhoon Dolphin. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight while sustaining high humidity, aligning with observed trends where recent daily lows have hovered between 26–28°C amid similar weather patterns. The market's heavy weighting toward 27°C (47% implied probability) and 28°C (31%) reflects trader assessment of ensemble guidance favoring this range over cooler or warmer outliers, though forecast revisions from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift outcomes if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change. Historical August baselines around 25–26°C provide context, but current synoptic influences elevate near-term expectations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$774End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 11, driven by extensive cloud cover, thundershowers, and moisture influx associated with approaching Typhoon Dolphin. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight while sustaining high humidity, aligning with observed trends where recent daily lows have hovered between 26–28°C amid similar weather patterns. The market's heavy weighting toward 27°C (47% implied probability) and 28°C (31%) reflects trader assessment of ensemble guidance favoring this range over cooler or warmer outliers, though forecast revisions from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift outcomes if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change. Historical August baselines around 25–26°C provide context, but current synoptic influences elevate near-term expectations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$774End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature of 27°C in Shanghai on August 11, driven by extensive cloud cover, thundershowers, and moisture influx associated with approaching Typhoon Dolphin. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight while sustaining high humidity, aligning with observed trends where recent daily lows have hovered between 26–28°C amid similar weather patterns. The market's heavy weighting toward 27°C (47% implied probability) and 28°C (31%) reflects trader assessment of ensemble guidance favoring this range over cooler or warmer outliers, though forecast revisions from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift outcomes if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change. Historical August baselines around 25–26°C provide context, but current synoptic influences elevate near-term expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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