Recent meteorological conditions, including the passage of a cold front over southeastern Brazil in early August 2026, have cooled air masses across São Paulo, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily maximum near 17–19°C. Official INMET guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate predominantly stable weather with light or irregular rainfall possible on August 10, limiting daytime heating and keeping highs below the monthly climatological average of 22–24°C. Model consensus highlights reduced solar insolation and northerly wind shifts as key variables, with any deviation in frontal timing or cloud cover likely to shift the outcome within the narrow 16–20°C band. Updated high-resolution runs from regional agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 10?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 10?
18°C 41%
17°C 28%
19°C 20%
16°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
8%
17°C
28%
18°C
41%
19°C
20%
20°C
4%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 41%
17°C 28%
19°C 20%
16°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
14°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$406 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$630 Vol.
8%
17°C
$1,073 Vol.
28%
18°C
$390 Vol.
41%
19°C
$912 Vol.
20%
20°C
$380 Vol.
4%
21°C
$703 Vol.
1%
22°C
$189 Vol.
1%
23°C
$226 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$280 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological conditions, including the passage of a cold front over southeastern Brazil in early August 2026, have cooled air masses across São Paulo, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily maximum near 17–19°C. Official INMET guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate predominantly stable weather with light or irregular rainfall possible on August 10, limiting daytime heating and keeping highs below the monthly climatological average of 22–24°C. Model consensus highlights reduced solar insolation and northerly wind shifts as key variables, with any deviation in frontal timing or cloud cover likely to shift the outcome within the narrow 16–20°C band. Updated high-resolution runs from regional agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$5,409End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological conditions, including the passage of a cold front over southeastern Brazil in early August 2026, have cooled air masses across São Paulo, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily maximum near 17–19°C. Official INMET guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate predominantly stable weather with light or irregular rainfall possible on August 10, limiting daytime heating and keeping highs below the monthly climatological average of 22–24°C. Model consensus highlights reduced solar insolation and northerly wind shifts as key variables, with any deviation in frontal timing or cloud cover likely to shift the outcome within the narrow 16–20°C band. Updated high-resolution runs from regional agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,409End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological conditions, including the passage of a cold front over southeastern Brazil in early August 2026, have cooled air masses across São Paulo, supporting market-implied odds favoring a daily maximum near 17–19°C. Official INMET guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate predominantly stable weather with light or irregular rainfall possible on August 10, limiting daytime heating and keeping highs below the monthly climatological average of 22–24°C. Model consensus highlights reduced solar insolation and northerly wind shifts as key variables, with any deviation in frontal timing or cloud cover likely to shift the outcome within the narrow 16–20°C band. Updated high-resolution runs from regional agencies will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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