Manila's tropical monsoon climate keeps the daily high temperature forecast tightly clustered around 30–31°C for August 12, with traders assigning 41% and 33% implied probabilities respectively. Short-range model consensus from agencies such as PAGASA and global ensembles shows modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, moderated by high humidity, scattered showers, and a weak monsoon trough that limits strong insolation. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, afternoon convection timing, or boundary-layer moisture can shift the peak by 1°C, explaining the narrow spread versus lower odds for 29°C or 32°C. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet forecast uncertainty widens as the verification window approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 12?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 12?
30°C 41%
31°C 33%
29°C 18%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
18%
30°C
41%
31°C
33%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 41%
31°C 33%
29°C 18%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
$445 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$568 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$207 Vol.
1%
28°C
$540 Vol.
4%
29°C
$1,093 Vol.
18%
30°C
$786 Vol.
41%
31°C
$1,040 Vol.
33%
32°C
$1,834 Vol.
5%
33°C
$1,638 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$291 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Manila's tropical monsoon climate keeps the daily high temperature forecast tightly clustered around 30–31°C for August 12, with traders assigning 41% and 33% implied probabilities respectively. Short-range model consensus from agencies such as PAGASA and global ensembles shows modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, moderated by high humidity, scattered showers, and a weak monsoon trough that limits strong insolation. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, afternoon convection timing, or boundary-layer moisture can shift the peak by 1°C, explaining the narrow spread versus lower odds for 29°C or 32°C. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet forecast uncertainty widens as the verification window approaches.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$8,710End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Manila's tropical monsoon climate keeps the daily high temperature forecast tightly clustered around 30–31°C for August 12, with traders assigning 41% and 33% implied probabilities respectively. Short-range model consensus from agencies such as PAGASA and global ensembles shows modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, moderated by high humidity, scattered showers, and a weak monsoon trough that limits strong insolation. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, afternoon convection timing, or boundary-layer moisture can shift the peak by 1°C, explaining the narrow spread versus lower odds for 29°C or 32°C. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet forecast uncertainty widens as the verification window approaches.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,710End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Manila's tropical monsoon climate keeps the daily high temperature forecast tightly clustered around 30–31°C for August 12, with traders assigning 41% and 33% implied probabilities respectively. Short-range model consensus from agencies such as PAGASA and global ensembles shows modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, moderated by high humidity, scattered showers, and a weak monsoon trough that limits strong insolation. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, afternoon convection timing, or boundary-layer moisture can shift the peak by 1°C, explaining the narrow spread versus lower odds for 29°C or 32°C. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet forecast uncertainty widens as the verification window approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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