**Trader consensus on the Wellington highest-temperature market for August 10 centers on 13–14 °C because these values align with both long-term climatology and the latest short-range model guidance two days out.** August daytime maxima in Wellington average near 13–14 °C, reflecting the city’s exposure to cool southerly or westerly flows through Cook Strait that limit warming even under weak high pressure. Recent MetService guidance shows highs of 12–14 °C through early August, with a brief northerly uptick to 14 °C on the 9th before the 10th, consistent with near-average seasonal conditions highlighted in the NIWA outlook. Ensemble spreads place the most probable daily maximum between 13 °C and 15 °C, giving the 14 °C outcome the edge while leaving meaningful probability on 13 °C if a stronger southerly component develops. The modest 15 °C tail reflects the chance of clearer skies or a warmer northerly burst, but current model consensus and historical variability keep probabilities for 16 °C or higher very low. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService maximum recorded at Kelburn on the calendar day, a figure sensitive to the precise timing of any frontal passage or wind shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 10?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?
14°C 47%
13°C 37%
15°C 15%
12°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
37%
14°C
47%
15°C
15%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
14°C 47%
13°C 37%
15°C 15%
12°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
7°C or below
$362 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$421 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$435 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$183 Vol.
1%
12°C
$407 Vol.
5%
13°C
$1,490 Vol.
37%
14°C
$897 Vol.
47%
15°C
$995 Vol.
15%
16°C
$169 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Wellington highest-temperature market for August 10 centers on 13–14 °C because these values align with both long-term climatology and the latest short-range model guidance two days out.**
August daytime maxima in Wellington average near 13–14 °C, reflecting the city’s exposure to cool southerly or westerly flows through Cook Strait that limit warming even under weak high pressure. Recent MetService guidance shows highs of 12–14 °C through early August, with a brief northerly uptick to 14 °C on the 9th before the 10th, consistent with near-average seasonal conditions highlighted in the NIWA outlook. Ensemble spreads place the most probable daily maximum between 13 °C and 15 °C, giving the 14 °C outcome the edge while leaving meaningful probability on 13 °C if a stronger southerly component develops. The modest 15 °C tail reflects the chance of clearer skies or a warmer northerly burst, but current model consensus and historical variability keep probabilities for 16 °C or higher very low. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService maximum recorded at Kelburn on the calendar day, a figure sensitive to the precise timing of any frontal passage or wind shift.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$5,703End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Wellington highest-temperature market for August 10 centers on 13–14 °C because these values align with both long-term climatology and the latest short-range model guidance two days out.**
August daytime maxima in Wellington average near 13–14 °C, reflecting the city’s exposure to cool southerly or westerly flows through Cook Strait that limit warming even under weak high pressure. Recent MetService guidance shows highs of 12–14 °C through early August, with a brief northerly uptick to 14 °C on the 9th before the 10th, consistent with near-average seasonal conditions highlighted in the NIWA outlook. Ensemble spreads place the most probable daily maximum between 13 °C and 15 °C, giving the 14 °C outcome the edge while leaving meaningful probability on 13 °C if a stronger southerly component develops. The modest 15 °C tail reflects the chance of clearer skies or a warmer northerly burst, but current model consensus and historical variability keep probabilities for 16 °C or higher very low. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService maximum recorded at Kelburn on the calendar day, a figure sensitive to the precise timing of any frontal passage or wind shift.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,703End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Wellington highest-temperature market for August 10 centers on 13–14 °C because these values align with both long-term climatology and the latest short-range model guidance two days out.** August daytime maxima in Wellington average near 13–14 °C, reflecting the city’s exposure to cool southerly or westerly flows through Cook Strait that limit warming even under weak high pressure. Recent MetService guidance shows highs of 12–14 °C through early August, with a brief northerly uptick to 14 °C on the 9th before the 10th, consistent with near-average seasonal conditions highlighted in the NIWA outlook. Ensemble spreads place the most probable daily maximum between 13 °C and 15 °C, giving the 14 °C outcome the edge while leaving meaningful probability on 13 °C if a stronger southerly component develops. The modest 15 °C tail reflects the chance of clearer skies or a warmer northerly burst, but current model consensus and historical variability keep probabilities for 16 °C or higher very low. Resolution will hinge on the official MetService maximum recorded at Kelburn on the calendar day, a figure sensitive to the precise timing of any frontal passage or wind shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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