Recent official forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 36°C for Taipei on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical summer conditions, high humidity, and urban heat retention with limited cloud cover expected during peak heating hours. Afternoon thundershowers pose the main uncertainty, potentially capping the high if they develop earlier than anticipated. Historical August averages hover around 33–34°C, but recent observations of 36–37°C peaks have reinforced trader focus on the upper end of the normal range. The market-implied odds, with 36°C leading at 46.5%, reflect this forecast consensus while acknowledging model variability in storm timing and intensity. Updated CWA briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on August 12?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 12?
36°C 46%
35°C 22%
37°C 22%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
3%
34°C
5%
35°C
22%
36°C
46%
37°C
22%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
1%
36°C 46%
35°C 22%
37°C 22%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$366 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$216 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$419 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$594 Vol.
3%
33°C
$260 Vol.
3%
34°C
$98 Vol.
5%
35°C
$230 Vol.
22%
36°C
$1,078 Vol.
46%
37°C
$573 Vol.
22%
38°C
$124 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$609 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 36°C for Taipei on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical summer conditions, high humidity, and urban heat retention with limited cloud cover expected during peak heating hours. Afternoon thundershowers pose the main uncertainty, potentially capping the high if they develop earlier than anticipated. Historical August averages hover around 33–34°C, but recent observations of 36–37°C peaks have reinforced trader focus on the upper end of the normal range. The market-implied odds, with 36°C leading at 46.5%, reflect this forecast consensus while acknowledging model variability in storm timing and intensity. Updated CWA briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$4,568End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 36°C for Taipei on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical summer conditions, high humidity, and urban heat retention with limited cloud cover expected during peak heating hours. Afternoon thundershowers pose the main uncertainty, potentially capping the high if they develop earlier than anticipated. Historical August averages hover around 33–34°C, but recent observations of 36–37°C peaks have reinforced trader focus on the upper end of the normal range. The market-implied odds, with 36°C leading at 46.5%, reflect this forecast consensus while acknowledging model variability in storm timing and intensity. Updated CWA briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,568End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and international models indicate a maximum temperature near 36°C for Taipei on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical summer conditions, high humidity, and urban heat retention with limited cloud cover expected during peak heating hours. Afternoon thundershowers pose the main uncertainty, potentially capping the high if they develop earlier than anticipated. Historical August averages hover around 33–34°C, but recent observations of 36–37°C peaks have reinforced trader focus on the upper end of the normal range. The market-implied odds, with 36°C leading at 46.5%, reflect this forecast consensus while acknowledging model variability in storm timing and intensity. Updated CWA briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions