Trader consensus favors a 29–30°C peak for Shanghai on August 13, as ensemble forecasts from global models indicate persistent subtropical high pressure with modest humidity and limited convective cloud cover moderating daytime heating. August climatology for the region typically produces mean daily maxima near 31°C under East Asian monsoon influence and urban heat-island amplification, yet recent runs show small spreads tied to sea-breeze timing and possible weak frontal moisture. These factors create the tight 29–30°C bracket, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C or higher only if clearer skies and stronger insolation develop. China Meteorological Administration updates over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
30°C 39%
29°C 32%
31°C 16%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
14%
29°C
32%
30°C
39%
31°C
16%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 39%
29°C 32%
31°C 16%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
24°C or below
$273 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$118 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$170 Vol.
1%
27°C
$434 Vol.
3%
28°C
$950 Vol.
14%
29°C
$1,682 Vol.
32%
30°C
$586 Vol.
39%
31°C
$790 Vol.
16%
32°C
$186 Vol.
3%
33°C
$121 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 29–30°C peak for Shanghai on August 13, as ensemble forecasts from global models indicate persistent subtropical high pressure with modest humidity and limited convective cloud cover moderating daytime heating. August climatology for the region typically produces mean daily maxima near 31°C under East Asian monsoon influence and urban heat-island amplification, yet recent runs show small spreads tied to sea-breeze timing and possible weak frontal moisture. These factors create the tight 29–30°C bracket, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C or higher only if clearer skies and stronger insolation develop. China Meteorological Administration updates over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,447End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 29–30°C peak for Shanghai on August 13, as ensemble forecasts from global models indicate persistent subtropical high pressure with modest humidity and limited convective cloud cover moderating daytime heating. August climatology for the region typically produces mean daily maxima near 31°C under East Asian monsoon influence and urban heat-island amplification, yet recent runs show small spreads tied to sea-breeze timing and possible weak frontal moisture. These factors create the tight 29–30°C bracket, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C or higher only if clearer skies and stronger insolation develop. China Meteorological Administration updates over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,447End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 29–30°C peak for Shanghai on August 13, as ensemble forecasts from global models indicate persistent subtropical high pressure with modest humidity and limited convective cloud cover moderating daytime heating. August climatology for the region typically produces mean daily maxima near 31°C under East Asian monsoon influence and urban heat-island amplification, yet recent runs show small spreads tied to sea-breeze timing and possible weak frontal moisture. These factors create the tight 29–30°C bracket, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C or higher only if clearer skies and stronger insolation develop. China Meteorological Administration updates over the next 48 hours will narrow the range ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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