Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northerly flow for August 13, supporting afternoon maxima clustered around 27–28 °C. This aligns with long-term August climatology of 27–29 °C daily highs while reflecting modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, and small spreads in ECMWF/GFS guidance on peak insolation and dew-point depression. The near-even market split between 27 °C and 28 °C captures this narrow forecast range, with traders weighting the latest short-range runs that favor slight cooling from increased wind or minor cloud. Updated model cycles and surface observations through August 12 will further refine the precise threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
28°C 41%
27°C 40%
26°C 11%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
11%
27°C
40%
28°C
41%
29°C
10%
30°C
2%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 41%
27°C 40%
26°C 11%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$39 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$27 Vol.
1%
25°C
$97 Vol.
5%
26°C
$159 Vol.
11%
27°C
$346 Vol.
40%
28°C
$164 Vol.
41%
29°C
$43 Vol.
10%
30°C
$43 Vol.
2%
31°C
$15 Vol.
6%
32°C
$12 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$27 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northerly flow for August 13, supporting afternoon maxima clustered around 27–28 °C. This aligns with long-term August climatology of 27–29 °C daily highs while reflecting modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, and small spreads in ECMWF/GFS guidance on peak insolation and dew-point depression. The near-even market split between 27 °C and 28 °C captures this narrow forecast range, with traders weighting the latest short-range runs that favor slight cooling from increased wind or minor cloud. Updated model cycles and surface observations through August 12 will further refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$973End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northerly flow for August 13, supporting afternoon maxima clustered around 27–28 °C. This aligns with long-term August climatology of 27–29 °C daily highs while reflecting modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, and small spreads in ECMWF/GFS guidance on peak insolation and dew-point depression. The near-even market split between 27 °C and 28 °C captures this narrow forecast range, with traders weighting the latest short-range runs that favor slight cooling from increased wind or minor cloud. Updated model cycles and surface observations through August 12 will further refine the precise threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$973End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions with clear skies and light northerly flow for August 13, supporting afternoon maxima clustered around 27–28 °C. This aligns with long-term August climatology of 27–29 °C daily highs while reflecting modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing, Bosphorus sea-breeze timing, and small spreads in ECMWF/GFS guidance on peak insolation and dew-point depression. The near-even market split between 27 °C and 28 °C captures this narrow forecast range, with traders weighting the latest short-range runs that favor slight cooling from increased wind or minor cloud. Updated model cycles and surface observations through August 12 will further refine the precise threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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