Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions and scattered showers for Tokyo on August 14, with a projected high near 29°C, moderating temperatures below seasonal normals of 31–32°C. This stems from persistent frontal activity and moisture associated with the East Asian monsoon, which limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima. Ensemble model guidance shows modest spread around 27–30°C depending on exact timing of any convective bursts, consistent with trader-implied odds clustering tightly at 27–29°C. Urban heat island effects and humidity levels near 80% further influence observed peaks, while historical analogs from similar synoptic patterns confirm reduced highs under overcast skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds around these values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?
29°C 27%
28°C 23%
27°C 21%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
7%
27°C
21%
28°C
23%
29°C
27%
30°C
10%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
1%
29°C 27%
28°C 23%
27°C 21%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
22°C or below
$374 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$362 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$290 Vol.
3%
26°C
$34 Vol.
7%
27°C
$110 Vol.
21%
28°C
$207 Vol.
23%
29°C
$106 Vol.
27%
30°C
$30 Vol.
10%
31°C
$17 Vol.
5%
32°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions and scattered showers for Tokyo on August 14, with a projected high near 29°C, moderating temperatures below seasonal normals of 31–32°C. This stems from persistent frontal activity and moisture associated with the East Asian monsoon, which limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima. Ensemble model guidance shows modest spread around 27–30°C depending on exact timing of any convective bursts, consistent with trader-implied odds clustering tightly at 27–29°C. Urban heat island effects and humidity levels near 80% further influence observed peaks, while historical analogs from similar synoptic patterns confirm reduced highs under overcast skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds around these values.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,562End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions and scattered showers for Tokyo on August 14, with a projected high near 29°C, moderating temperatures below seasonal normals of 31–32°C. This stems from persistent frontal activity and moisture associated with the East Asian monsoon, which limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima. Ensemble model guidance shows modest spread around 27–30°C depending on exact timing of any convective bursts, consistent with trader-implied odds clustering tightly at 27–29°C. Urban heat island effects and humidity levels near 80% further influence observed peaks, while historical analogs from similar synoptic patterns confirm reduced highs under overcast skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds around these values.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,562End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate cloudy conditions and scattered showers for Tokyo on August 14, with a projected high near 29°C, moderating temperatures below seasonal normals of 31–32°C. This stems from persistent frontal activity and moisture associated with the East Asian monsoon, which limits solar heating and caps daytime maxima. Ensemble model guidance shows modest spread around 27–30°C depending on exact timing of any convective bursts, consistent with trader-implied odds clustering tightly at 27–29°C. Urban heat island effects and humidity levels near 80% further influence observed peaks, while historical analogs from similar synoptic patterns confirm reduced highs under overcast skies. Updated model runs and JMA briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine resolution thresholds around these values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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