**Trader consensus in this market centers on 32–33°C as the most likely daily maximum at the Incheon station (the official reference for Seoul-area resolution), with combined implied probability exceeding 68%.** This positioning reflects short-range guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and international models indicating a peak near 33–34°C on August 14 under mostly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers or thunderstorms. August climatology places the region in its hottest month, with average highs around 30°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, but the current synoptic pattern—persistent high pressure with easterly flow and limited cloud cover—has sustained elevated temperatures following early-August records. Forecast updates through August 12 show modest cooling potential from increased moisture and cloudiness on the 14th, keeping the distribution peaked at 32–33°C while assigning lower probability to 34°C or higher. Key resolution factors include the official Incheon International Airport observation (Saffir-Simpson or standard thermometer readings are not applicable here; daily maximum is the metric). Upcoming KMA model runs and any revisions to steering patterns or precipitation timing represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?
32°C 41%
33°C 28%
31°C 24%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
24%
32°C
41%
33°C
28%
34°C
7%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 41%
33°C 28%
31°C 24%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
26°C or below
$229 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$15 Vol.
1%
29°C
$60 Vol.
4%
30°C
$137 Vol.
6%
31°C
$141 Vol.
24%
32°C
$221 Vol.
41%
33°C
$90 Vol.
28%
34°C
$110 Vol.
7%
35°C
$59 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$74 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus in this market centers on 32–33°C as the most likely daily maximum at the Incheon station (the official reference for Seoul-area resolution), with combined implied probability exceeding 68%.** This positioning reflects short-range guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and international models indicating a peak near 33–34°C on August 14 under mostly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers or thunderstorms.
August climatology places the region in its hottest month, with average highs around 30°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, but the current synoptic pattern—persistent high pressure with easterly flow and limited cloud cover—has sustained elevated temperatures following early-August records. Forecast updates through August 12 show modest cooling potential from increased moisture and cloudiness on the 14th, keeping the distribution peaked at 32–33°C while assigning lower probability to 34°C or higher.
Key resolution factors include the official Incheon International Airport observation (Saffir-Simpson or standard thermometer readings are not applicable here; daily maximum is the metric). Upcoming KMA model runs and any revisions to steering patterns or precipitation timing represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,202End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus in this market centers on 32–33°C as the most likely daily maximum at the Incheon station (the official reference for Seoul-area resolution), with combined implied probability exceeding 68%.** This positioning reflects short-range guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and international models indicating a peak near 33–34°C on August 14 under mostly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers or thunderstorms.
August climatology places the region in its hottest month, with average highs around 30°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, but the current synoptic pattern—persistent high pressure with easterly flow and limited cloud cover—has sustained elevated temperatures following early-August records. Forecast updates through August 12 show modest cooling potential from increased moisture and cloudiness on the 14th, keeping the distribution peaked at 32–33°C while assigning lower probability to 34°C or higher.
Key resolution factors include the official Incheon International Airport observation (Saffir-Simpson or standard thermometer readings are not applicable here; daily maximum is the metric). Upcoming KMA model runs and any revisions to steering patterns or precipitation timing represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,202End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in this market centers on 32–33°C as the most likely daily maximum at the Incheon station (the official reference for Seoul-area resolution), with combined implied probability exceeding 68%.** This positioning reflects short-range guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and international models indicating a peak near 33–34°C on August 14 under mostly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers or thunderstorms. August climatology places the region in its hottest month, with average highs around 30°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, but the current synoptic pattern—persistent high pressure with easterly flow and limited cloud cover—has sustained elevated temperatures following early-August records. Forecast updates through August 12 show modest cooling potential from increased moisture and cloudiness on the 14th, keeping the distribution peaked at 32–33°C while assigning lower probability to 34°C or higher. Key resolution factors include the official Incheon International Airport observation (Saffir-Simpson or standard thermometer readings are not applicable here; daily maximum is the metric). Upcoming KMA model runs and any revisions to steering patterns or precipitation timing represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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