Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a daily maximum around 32–33°C in Chengdu on August 16, driven by typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and light winds limiting daytime heating. The Sichuan Basin’s topography often traps moisture, moderating peaks compared to drier inland areas, while scattered showers or overcast skies can suppress temperatures by several degrees. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with historical August averages near 31°C and occasional excursions above 35°C when subsidence strengthens. Traders weigh these model outputs against resolution criteria for the official daily high, noting that updated runs closer to the date could shift probabilities within the tightly bunched 30–34°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 16?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 16?
32°C 21%
31°C 20%
33°C 19%
34°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
8%
30°C
12%
31°C
20%
32°C
21%
33°C
19%
34°C
14%
35°C or higher
10%
32°C 21%
31°C 20%
33°C 19%
34°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$320 Vol.
1%
27°C
$462 Vol.
2%
28°C
$385 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
8%
30°C
$20 Vol.
12%
31°C
$48 Vol.
20%
32°C
$40 Vol.
21%
33°C
$20 Vol.
19%
34°C
$0 Vol.
14%
35°C or higher
$231 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a daily maximum around 32–33°C in Chengdu on August 16, driven by typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and light winds limiting daytime heating. The Sichuan Basin’s topography often traps moisture, moderating peaks compared to drier inland areas, while scattered showers or overcast skies can suppress temperatures by several degrees. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with historical August averages near 31°C and occasional excursions above 35°C when subsidence strengthens. Traders weigh these model outputs against resolution criteria for the official daily high, noting that updated runs closer to the date could shift probabilities within the tightly bunched 30–34°C range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,504End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a daily maximum around 32–33°C in Chengdu on August 16, driven by typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and light winds limiting daytime heating. The Sichuan Basin’s topography often traps moisture, moderating peaks compared to drier inland areas, while scattered showers or overcast skies can suppress temperatures by several degrees. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with historical August averages near 31°C and occasional excursions above 35°C when subsidence strengthens. Traders weigh these model outputs against resolution criteria for the official daily high, noting that updated runs closer to the date could shift probabilities within the tightly bunched 30–34°C range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,504End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a daily maximum around 32–33°C in Chengdu on August 16, driven by typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and light winds limiting daytime heating. The Sichuan Basin’s topography often traps moisture, moderating peaks compared to drier inland areas, while scattered showers or overcast skies can suppress temperatures by several degrees. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread, with historical August averages near 31°C and occasional excursions above 35°C when subsidence strengthens. Traders weigh these model outputs against resolution criteria for the official daily high, noting that updated runs closer to the date could shift probabilities within the tightly bunched 30–34°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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