**Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 31–32°C for Manila’s August 14 maximum.** Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus show Metro Manila under cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limits daytime insolation and caps surface heating. Forecast highs for the 14th range from 31°C to 33°C, with probabilities highest near 31–32°C because typical monsoon cloud cover and rainfall timing usually prevent the 34°C+ readings seen in drier spells. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective showers rather than large model disagreements. Stronger or earlier thunderstorms would favor the lower side of the distribution (30–31°C), while any temporary breaks in cloud cover could allow brief spikes toward 32–33°C. Historical August climatology for Manila, with frequent monsoon-enhanced rainfall and average highs near 31°C, reinforces this tight range. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs on the 13th will be the key catalysts for any shift in market positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 14?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 14?
31°C 46%
32°C 27%
30°C 20%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
20%
31°C
34%
32°C
27%
33°C
9%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 46%
32°C 27%
30°C 20%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
$343 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$21 Vol.
1%
28°C
$301 Vol.
4%
29°C
$100 Vol.
10%
30°C
$2 Vol.
20%
31°C
$15 Vol.
34%
32°C
$47 Vol.
27%
33°C
$68 Vol.
9%
34°C
$37 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 31–32°C for Manila’s August 14 maximum.** Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus show Metro Manila under cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limits daytime insolation and caps surface heating. Forecast highs for the 14th range from 31°C to 33°C, with probabilities highest near 31–32°C because typical monsoon cloud cover and rainfall timing usually prevent the 34°C+ readings seen in drier spells.
The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective showers rather than large model disagreements. Stronger or earlier thunderstorms would favor the lower side of the distribution (30–31°C), while any temporary breaks in cloud cover could allow brief spikes toward 32–33°C. Historical August climatology for Manila, with frequent monsoon-enhanced rainfall and average highs near 31°C, reinforces this tight range. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs on the 13th will be the key catalysts for any shift in market positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,059End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 31–32°C for Manila’s August 14 maximum.** Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus show Metro Manila under cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limits daytime insolation and caps surface heating. Forecast highs for the 14th range from 31°C to 33°C, with probabilities highest near 31–32°C because typical monsoon cloud cover and rainfall timing usually prevent the 34°C+ readings seen in drier spells.
The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective showers rather than large model disagreements. Stronger or earlier thunderstorms would favor the lower side of the distribution (30–31°C), while any temporary breaks in cloud cover could allow brief spikes toward 32–33°C. Historical August climatology for Manila, with frequent monsoon-enhanced rainfall and average highs near 31°C, reinforces this tight range. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs on the 13th will be the key catalysts for any shift in market positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,059End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 31–32°C for Manila’s August 14 maximum.** Official PAGASA guidance and model consensus show Metro Manila under cloudy skies with scattered to widespread thunderstorms through the period, which limits daytime insolation and caps surface heating. Forecast highs for the 14th range from 31°C to 33°C, with probabilities highest near 31–32°C because typical monsoon cloud cover and rainfall timing usually prevent the 34°C+ readings seen in drier spells. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective showers rather than large model disagreements. Stronger or earlier thunderstorms would favor the lower side of the distribution (30–31°C), while any temporary breaks in cloud cover could allow brief spikes toward 32–33°C. Historical August climatology for Manila, with frequent monsoon-enhanced rainfall and average highs near 31°C, reinforces this tight range. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs on the 13th will be the key catalysts for any shift in market positioning before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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