Recent model consensus from European and global ensembles indicates a post-heatwave cooldown arriving in Paris by August 15–16, with daytime highs dropping from midweek peaks near 37–38 °C to around 29–30 °C under increased cloud cover and thunderstorm risk. This pattern favors lower overnight minima closer to or below the long-term August average of 15–18 °C, elevating the 18 °C-or-below outcome to 47 % implied probability. Persistent warm advection earlier in the week had kept recent nightly lows near 20–22 °C, but the incoming Atlantic flow and potential for radiational cooling under clearing skies introduce genuine forecast spread that traders are pricing across the 19–21 °C bins. Updated runs ahead of the August 16 resolution window will be the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 16?
18°C or below 45%
21°C 32%
19°C 28%
20°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
45%
19°C
28%
20°C
21%
21°C
22%
22°C
10%
23°C
6%
24°C
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
18°C or below 45%
21°C 32%
19°C 28%
20°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
$10 Vol.
45%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$307 Vol.
22%
22°C
$10 Vol.
10%
23°C
$48 Vol.
6%
24°C
$15 Vol.
4%
25°C
$10 Vol.
4%
26°C
$10 Vol.
4%
27°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global ensembles indicates a post-heatwave cooldown arriving in Paris by August 15–16, with daytime highs dropping from midweek peaks near 37–38 °C to around 29–30 °C under increased cloud cover and thunderstorm risk. This pattern favors lower overnight minima closer to or below the long-term August average of 15–18 °C, elevating the 18 °C-or-below outcome to 47 % implied probability. Persistent warm advection earlier in the week had kept recent nightly lows near 20–22 °C, but the incoming Atlantic flow and potential for radiational cooling under clearing skies introduce genuine forecast spread that traders are pricing across the 19–21 °C bins. Updated runs ahead of the August 16 resolution window will be the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$431End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global ensembles indicates a post-heatwave cooldown arriving in Paris by August 15–16, with daytime highs dropping from midweek peaks near 37–38 °C to around 29–30 °C under increased cloud cover and thunderstorm risk. This pattern favors lower overnight minima closer to or below the long-term August average of 15–18 °C, elevating the 18 °C-or-below outcome to 47 % implied probability. Persistent warm advection earlier in the week had kept recent nightly lows near 20–22 °C, but the incoming Atlantic flow and potential for radiational cooling under clearing skies introduce genuine forecast spread that traders are pricing across the 19–21 °C bins. Updated runs ahead of the August 16 resolution window will be the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$431End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from European and global ensembles indicates a post-heatwave cooldown arriving in Paris by August 15–16, with daytime highs dropping from midweek peaks near 37–38 °C to around 29–30 °C under increased cloud cover and thunderstorm risk. This pattern favors lower overnight minima closer to or below the long-term August average of 15–18 °C, elevating the 18 °C-or-below outcome to 47 % implied probability. Persistent warm advection earlier in the week had kept recent nightly lows near 20–22 °C, but the incoming Atlantic flow and potential for radiational cooling under clearing skies introduce genuine forecast spread that traders are pricing across the 19–21 °C bins. Updated runs ahead of the August 16 resolution window will be the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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