Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies highlights frequent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity moderating Shenzhen’s peak temperature on August 16 toward 32–33°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. In Shenzhen’s subtropical monsoon climate, typical August daytime maxima average near 32°C, but enhanced convective instability often triggers afternoon showers that suppress extremes below historical peaks of 34–35°C. Current model runs reflect ongoing overcast conditions and sea-breeze influences from the South China Sea, reducing radiative heating. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds, particularly regarding storm timing and intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?
33°C 40%
32°C 24%
34°C 22%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
8%
32°C
24%
33°C
40%
34°C
22%
35°C
4%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 40%
32°C 24%
34°C 22%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$201 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9 Vol.
4%
31°C
$38 Vol.
8%
32°C
$193 Vol.
24%
33°C
$195 Vol.
40%
34°C
$79 Vol.
22%
35°C
$367 Vol.
4%
36°C
$227 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$32 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies highlights frequent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity moderating Shenzhen’s peak temperature on August 16 toward 32–33°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. In Shenzhen’s subtropical monsoon climate, typical August daytime maxima average near 32°C, but enhanced convective instability often triggers afternoon showers that suppress extremes below historical peaks of 34–35°C. Current model runs reflect ongoing overcast conditions and sea-breeze influences from the South China Sea, reducing radiative heating. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds, particularly regarding storm timing and intensity.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,542End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies highlights frequent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity moderating Shenzhen’s peak temperature on August 16 toward 32–33°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. In Shenzhen’s subtropical monsoon climate, typical August daytime maxima average near 32°C, but enhanced convective instability often triggers afternoon showers that suppress extremes below historical peaks of 34–35°C. Current model runs reflect ongoing overcast conditions and sea-breeze influences from the South China Sea, reducing radiative heating. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds, particularly regarding storm timing and intensity.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,542End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies highlights frequent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and high humidity moderating Shenzhen’s peak temperature on August 16 toward 32–33°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. In Shenzhen’s subtropical monsoon climate, typical August daytime maxima average near 32°C, but enhanced convective instability often triggers afternoon showers that suppress extremes below historical peaks of 34–35°C. Current model runs reflect ongoing overcast conditions and sea-breeze influences from the South China Sea, reducing radiative heating. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds, particularly regarding storm timing and intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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