Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a daily maximum of 29–30°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, under overcast skies with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity near 80%. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, deviating modestly below the early-August climatological average of 31–32°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering from regional troughs that sustain moisture and cloud cover, positioning 29°C as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability while keeping 28°C and 31°C viable if convection intensity shifts. Updated forecasts expected within 24–48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
29°C 47%
30°C 24%
28°C 14%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
14%
29°C
47%
30°C
24%
31°C
13%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 47%
30°C 24%
28°C 14%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$185 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,063 Vol.
3%
28°C
$897 Vol.
14%
29°C
$1,752 Vol.
47%
30°C
$843 Vol.
24%
31°C
$1,091 Vol.
13%
32°C
$308 Vol.
5%
33°C
$122 Vol.
1%
34°C
$354 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$102 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a daily maximum of 29–30°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, under overcast skies with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity near 80%. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, deviating modestly below the early-August climatological average of 31–32°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering from regional troughs that sustain moisture and cloud cover, positioning 29°C as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability while keeping 28°C and 31°C viable if convection intensity shifts. Updated forecasts expected within 24–48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,870End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a daily maximum of 29–30°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, under overcast skies with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity near 80%. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, deviating modestly below the early-August climatological average of 31–32°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering from regional troughs that sustain moisture and cloud cover, positioning 29°C as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability while keeping 28°C and 31°C viable if convection intensity shifts. Updated forecasts expected within 24–48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,870End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate a daily maximum of 29–30°C for Shanghai on August 15, 2026, under overcast skies with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity near 80%. These conditions suppress surface heating by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, deviating modestly below the early-August climatological average of 31–32°C. Recent model runs show consistent steering from regional troughs that sustain moisture and cloud cover, positioning 29°C as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability while keeping 28°C and 31°C viable if convection intensity shifts. Updated forecasts expected within 24–48 hours will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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