Uncertainty in short-range forecast models for August 15 drives closely matched 50% implied probabilities across temperature thresholds in Amsterdam, with ensemble guidance centering daily maxima around 23–26°C amid variable cloud cover and possible showers. Recent Atlantic pressure patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures have tempered earlier summer heat influences, creating narrow margins where even modest shifts in wind direction or insolation could push the peak across key resolution lines such as 25°C or 27°C. Official guidance from European meteorological centers highlights typical mid-August variability of ±2–3°C, underscoring how evolving model runs over the next 48 hours will determine whether trader consensus settles on cooler or warmer outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?
26°C 34%
27°C 31%
25°C 12%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
6%
24°C
6%
25°C
12%
26°C
34%
27°C
31%
28°C
10%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 34%
27°C 31%
25°C 12%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
1%
23°C
$32 Vol.
6%
24°C
$0 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
12%
26°C
$0 Vol.
34%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$13 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-range forecast models for August 15 drives closely matched 50% implied probabilities across temperature thresholds in Amsterdam, with ensemble guidance centering daily maxima around 23–26°C amid variable cloud cover and possible showers. Recent Atlantic pressure patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures have tempered earlier summer heat influences, creating narrow margins where even modest shifts in wind direction or insolation could push the peak across key resolution lines such as 25°C or 27°C. Official guidance from European meteorological centers highlights typical mid-August variability of ±2–3°C, underscoring how evolving model runs over the next 48 hours will determine whether trader consensus settles on cooler or warmer outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$45End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-range forecast models for August 15 drives closely matched 50% implied probabilities across temperature thresholds in Amsterdam, with ensemble guidance centering daily maxima around 23–26°C amid variable cloud cover and possible showers. Recent Atlantic pressure patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures have tempered earlier summer heat influences, creating narrow margins where even modest shifts in wind direction or insolation could push the peak across key resolution lines such as 25°C or 27°C. Official guidance from European meteorological centers highlights typical mid-August variability of ±2–3°C, underscoring how evolving model runs over the next 48 hours will determine whether trader consensus settles on cooler or warmer outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uncertainty in short-range forecast models for August 15 drives closely matched 50% implied probabilities across temperature thresholds in Amsterdam, with ensemble guidance centering daily maxima around 23–26°C amid variable cloud cover and possible showers. Recent Atlantic pressure patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures have tempered earlier summer heat influences, creating narrow margins where even modest shifts in wind direction or insolation could push the peak across key resolution lines such as 25°C or 27°C. Official guidance from European meteorological centers highlights typical mid-August variability of ±2–3°C, underscoring how evolving model runs over the next 48 hours will determine whether trader consensus settles on cooler or warmer outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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