Recent hot weather driven by Tropical Cyclone Dolphin's subsiding air has produced daily maxima of 35–38°C at Hong Kong Observatory stations, but forecast models indicate moderating conditions for August 13 with increased cloud cover and possible showers that limit surface heating. This transition, tied to shifting steering flow and higher humidity from the South China Sea monsoon trough, favors a peak near 32–33°C rather than sustained extreme heat, consistent with the market's tight 33°C (40.5%) and 32°C (33.0%) implied probabilities over 34°C (15.5%). ENSO-neutral conditions and the long-term warming trend support above-average temperatures overall, yet short-term variability in insolation and boundary-layer moisture creates the narrow range separating these outcomes, with official HKO updates on steering patterns and model consensus the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?
33°C 41%
32°C 33%
34°C 17%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
8%
32°C
33%
33°C
41%
34°C
17%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 41%
32°C 33%
34°C 17%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
27°C or below
$38 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$43 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$53 Vol.
1%
30°C
$360 Vol.
3%
31°C
$111 Vol.
8%
32°C
$114 Vol.
33%
33°C
$264 Vol.
41%
34°C
$160 Vol.
17%
35°C
$236 Vol.
5%
36°C
$170 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$53 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent hot weather driven by Tropical Cyclone Dolphin's subsiding air has produced daily maxima of 35–38°C at Hong Kong Observatory stations, but forecast models indicate moderating conditions for August 13 with increased cloud cover and possible showers that limit surface heating. This transition, tied to shifting steering flow and higher humidity from the South China Sea monsoon trough, favors a peak near 32–33°C rather than sustained extreme heat, consistent with the market's tight 33°C (40.5%) and 32°C (33.0%) implied probabilities over 34°C (15.5%). ENSO-neutral conditions and the long-term warming trend support above-average temperatures overall, yet short-term variability in insolation and boundary-layer moisture creates the narrow range separating these outcomes, with official HKO updates on steering patterns and model consensus the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,602End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent hot weather driven by Tropical Cyclone Dolphin's subsiding air has produced daily maxima of 35–38°C at Hong Kong Observatory stations, but forecast models indicate moderating conditions for August 13 with increased cloud cover and possible showers that limit surface heating. This transition, tied to shifting steering flow and higher humidity from the South China Sea monsoon trough, favors a peak near 32–33°C rather than sustained extreme heat, consistent with the market's tight 33°C (40.5%) and 32°C (33.0%) implied probabilities over 34°C (15.5%). ENSO-neutral conditions and the long-term warming trend support above-average temperatures overall, yet short-term variability in insolation and boundary-layer moisture creates the narrow range separating these outcomes, with official HKO updates on steering patterns and model consensus the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,602End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hot weather driven by Tropical Cyclone Dolphin's subsiding air has produced daily maxima of 35–38°C at Hong Kong Observatory stations, but forecast models indicate moderating conditions for August 13 with increased cloud cover and possible showers that limit surface heating. This transition, tied to shifting steering flow and higher humidity from the South China Sea monsoon trough, favors a peak near 32–33°C rather than sustained extreme heat, consistent with the market's tight 33°C (40.5%) and 32°C (33.0%) implied probabilities over 34°C (15.5%). ENSO-neutral conditions and the long-term warming trend support above-average temperatures overall, yet short-term variability in insolation and boundary-layer moisture creates the narrow range separating these outcomes, with official HKO updates on steering patterns and model consensus the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions