Traders heavily favor a 15°C high for Wellington on August 13, reflecting the latest short-range model consensus from regional forecasts that place the daily maximum between 14–16°C under overcast skies and light northerly flow. Typical August climatology in the region centers on highs near 12–13°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly milder conditions driven by increased cloud cover and reduced radiative cooling overnight, limiting the chance of sharper drops. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average temperatures through August further supports the narrow range around 15°C, with lower-probability outcomes for 17°C or above requiring stronger warm advection that current guidance does not support. Updated model runs and official Metservice briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key data points likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
15°C 53%
14°C 22%
16°C 22%
13°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
22%
15°C
53%
16°C
22%
17°C
3%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 53%
14°C 22%
16°C 22%
13°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
$429 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$429 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$207 Vol.
1%
12°C
$253 Vol.
1%
13°C
$313 Vol.
4%
14°C
$518 Vol.
22%
15°C
$460 Vol.
53%
16°C
$699 Vol.
22%
17°C
$164 Vol.
3%
18°C
$5 Vol.
3%
19°C or higher
$172 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders heavily favor a 15°C high for Wellington on August 13, reflecting the latest short-range model consensus from regional forecasts that place the daily maximum between 14–16°C under overcast skies and light northerly flow. Typical August climatology in the region centers on highs near 12–13°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly milder conditions driven by increased cloud cover and reduced radiative cooling overnight, limiting the chance of sharper drops. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average temperatures through August further supports the narrow range around 15°C, with lower-probability outcomes for 17°C or above requiring stronger warm advection that current guidance does not support. Updated model runs and official Metservice briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key data points likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,649End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders heavily favor a 15°C high for Wellington on August 13, reflecting the latest short-range model consensus from regional forecasts that place the daily maximum between 14–16°C under overcast skies and light northerly flow. Typical August climatology in the region centers on highs near 12–13°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly milder conditions driven by increased cloud cover and reduced radiative cooling overnight, limiting the chance of sharper drops. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average temperatures through August further supports the narrow range around 15°C, with lower-probability outcomes for 17°C or above requiring stronger warm advection that current guidance does not support. Updated model runs and official Metservice briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key data points likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,649End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor a 15°C high for Wellington on August 13, reflecting the latest short-range model consensus from regional forecasts that place the daily maximum between 14–16°C under overcast skies and light northerly flow. Typical August climatology in the region centers on highs near 12–13°C, but recent model runs indicate slightly milder conditions driven by increased cloud cover and reduced radiative cooling overnight, limiting the chance of sharper drops. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near-average temperatures through August further supports the narrow range around 15°C, with lower-probability outcomes for 17°C or above requiring stronger warm advection that current guidance does not support. Updated model runs and official Metservice briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key data points likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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