Beijing's late-summer monsoon patterns and typical August climatology anchor trader sentiment, with average daily highs near 30°C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms or cloud cover that can suppress maxima by several degrees. Current model guidance two days ahead shows limited spread around 29–32°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact steering flows, moisture levels, and convective timing that differentiate outcomes in this narrow band. Historical data indicate highs rarely exceed 33°C by mid-August without a strong ridge, while urban heat island effects and humidity can nudge readings higher on clearer days. The evenly matched 19% shares across 29–33°C capture this genuine forecast variability ahead of updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
31°C 26%
30°C 25%
32°C 22%
33°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
4%
28°C
3%
29°C
13%
30°C
25%
31°C
26%
32°C
22%
33°C
18%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
4%
37°C or higher
1%
31°C 26%
30°C 25%
32°C 22%
33°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
28°C
$10 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
13%
30°C
$0 Vol.
25%
31°C
$0 Vol.
26%
32°C
$0 Vol.
22%
33°C
$0 Vol.
18%
34°C
$13 Vol.
2%
35°C
$19 Vol.
4%
36°C
$12 Vol.
4%
37°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's late-summer monsoon patterns and typical August climatology anchor trader sentiment, with average daily highs near 30°C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms or cloud cover that can suppress maxima by several degrees. Current model guidance two days ahead shows limited spread around 29–32°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact steering flows, moisture levels, and convective timing that differentiate outcomes in this narrow band. Historical data indicate highs rarely exceed 33°C by mid-August without a strong ridge, while urban heat island effects and humidity can nudge readings higher on clearer days. The evenly matched 19% shares across 29–33°C capture this genuine forecast variability ahead of updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$71End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's late-summer monsoon patterns and typical August climatology anchor trader sentiment, with average daily highs near 30°C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms or cloud cover that can suppress maxima by several degrees. Current model guidance two days ahead shows limited spread around 29–32°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact steering flows, moisture levels, and convective timing that differentiate outcomes in this narrow band. Historical data indicate highs rarely exceed 33°C by mid-August without a strong ridge, while urban heat island effects and humidity can nudge readings higher on clearer days. The evenly matched 19% shares across 29–33°C capture this genuine forecast variability ahead of updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Beijing's late-summer monsoon patterns and typical August climatology anchor trader sentiment, with average daily highs near 30°C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms or cloud cover that can suppress maxima by several degrees. Current model guidance two days ahead shows limited spread around 29–32°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact steering flows, moisture levels, and convective timing that differentiate outcomes in this narrow band. Historical data indicate highs rarely exceed 33°C by mid-August without a strong ridge, while urban heat island effects and humidity can nudge readings higher on clearer days. The evenly matched 19% shares across 29–33°C capture this genuine forecast variability ahead of updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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