Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under a building thermal ridge with warm-air advection from the south, supporting daytime maxima clustered near 28–30 °C on August 16. Increasing afternoon cloud cover and light westerly winds are expected to limit peak heating and reduce the chance of exceeding 31 °C, keeping the market’s tight distribution between 28 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Minor model spread arises from differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical mid-August averages near 24 °C provide context for the current anomaly, while official IMGW updates and the next model cycle will refine resolution criteria tied to Warsaw Chopin Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 28%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
5%
28°C
21%
29°C
33%
30°C
28%
31°C
7%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 28%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$132 Vol.
5%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$3 Vol.
21%
29°C
$76 Vol.
33%
30°C
$604 Vol.
28%
31°C
$145 Vol.
7%
32°C
$10 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under a building thermal ridge with warm-air advection from the south, supporting daytime maxima clustered near 28–30 °C on August 16. Increasing afternoon cloud cover and light westerly winds are expected to limit peak heating and reduce the chance of exceeding 31 °C, keeping the market’s tight distribution between 28 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Minor model spread arises from differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical mid-August averages near 24 °C provide context for the current anomaly, while official IMGW updates and the next model cycle will refine resolution criteria tied to Warsaw Chopin Airport observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,006End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under a building thermal ridge with warm-air advection from the south, supporting daytime maxima clustered near 28–30 °C on August 16. Increasing afternoon cloud cover and light westerly winds are expected to limit peak heating and reduce the chance of exceeding 31 °C, keeping the market’s tight distribution between 28 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Minor model spread arises from differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical mid-August averages near 24 °C provide context for the current anomaly, while official IMGW updates and the next model cycle will refine resolution criteria tied to Warsaw Chopin Airport observations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,006End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw under a building thermal ridge with warm-air advection from the south, supporting daytime maxima clustered near 28–30 °C on August 16. Increasing afternoon cloud cover and light westerly winds are expected to limit peak heating and reduce the chance of exceeding 31 °C, keeping the market’s tight distribution between 28 °C and 30 °C outcomes. Minor model spread arises from differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical mid-August averages near 24 °C provide context for the current anomaly, while official IMGW updates and the next model cycle will refine resolution criteria tied to Warsaw Chopin Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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