Uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble guidance on cloud cover, convective timing, and precipitation for August 14 is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 78–81°F. Scattered showers and thicker cloud decks are expected to reduce surface insolation while promoting evaporative cooling and higher humidity, capping highs well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal near 83°F. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in storm coverage and steering patterns, with most runs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from NWS Chicago will refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 14?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 14?
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 21%
76-77°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
35%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 21%
76-77°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
73°F or below
$29 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$125 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$144 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$807 Vol.
34%
80-81°F
$118 Vol.
35%
82-83°F
$63 Vol.
21%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$93 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$80 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$12 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble guidance on cloud cover, convective timing, and precipitation for August 14 is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 78–81°F. Scattered showers and thicker cloud decks are expected to reduce surface insolation while promoting evaporative cooling and higher humidity, capping highs well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal near 83°F. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in storm coverage and steering patterns, with most runs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from NWS Chicago will refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,428End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble guidance on cloud cover, convective timing, and precipitation for August 14 is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 78–81°F. Scattered showers and thicker cloud decks are expected to reduce surface insolation while promoting evaporative cooling and higher humidity, capping highs well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal near 83°F. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in storm coverage and steering patterns, with most runs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from NWS Chicago will refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,428End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uncertainty in National Weather Service ensemble guidance on cloud cover, convective timing, and precipitation for August 14 is driving the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 78–81°F. Scattered showers and thicker cloud decks are expected to reduce surface insolation while promoting evaporative cooling and higher humidity, capping highs well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal near 83°F. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in storm coverage and steering patterns, with most runs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from NWS Chicago will refine these probabilities as the event approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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