Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies through mid-August, supporting daily maxima near 34–36 °C on the 15th. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or local boundary-layer mixing can add or subtract 2–3 °C. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high at 33 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet within the typical interannual range. Traders therefore price the 32–38 °C outcomes near even money while assigning minimal probability to 39 °C-plus readings, reflecting both the consensus forecast envelope and the limited time remaining for major pattern changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
33°C 29%
34°C 23%
35°C 17%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
12%
33°C
29%
34°C
23%
35°C
17%
36°C
7%
37°C
3%
38°C
3%
39°C
3%
40°C or higher
2%
33°C 29%
34°C 23%
35°C 17%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5 Vol.
3%
32°C
$7 Vol.
12%
33°C
$23 Vol.
29%
34°C
$92 Vol.
23%
35°C
$20 Vol.
17%
36°C
$10 Vol.
7%
37°C
$15 Vol.
3%
38°C
$27 Vol.
3%
39°C
$12 Vol.
3%
40°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies through mid-August, supporting daily maxima near 34–36 °C on the 15th. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or local boundary-layer mixing can add or subtract 2–3 °C. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high at 33 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet within the typical interannual range. Traders therefore price the 32–38 °C outcomes near even money while assigning minimal probability to 39 °C-plus readings, reflecting both the consensus forecast envelope and the limited time remaining for major pattern changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$235End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies through mid-August, supporting daily maxima near 34–36 °C on the 15th. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or local boundary-layer mixing can add or subtract 2–3 °C. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high at 33 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet within the typical interannual range. Traders therefore price the 32–38 °C outcomes near even money while assigning minimal probability to 39 °C-plus readings, reflecting both the consensus forecast envelope and the limited time remaining for major pattern changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$235End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Madrid under a persistent high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies through mid-August, supporting daily maxima near 34–36 °C on the 15th. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or local boundary-layer mixing can add or subtract 2–3 °C. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high at 33 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet within the typical interannual range. Traders therefore price the 32–38 °C outcomes near even money while assigning minimal probability to 39 °C-plus readings, reflecting both the consensus forecast envelope and the limited time remaining for major pattern changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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