Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chicago on July 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 5?
78-79°F 32%
76-77°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
74-75°F 14%
最新
最新
2026-07-05
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 32%
76-77°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
74-75°F 14%
最新
最新
2026-07-05
71°F or below
$51 交易量
<1%
72-73°F
$206 交易量
1%
74-75°F
$457 交易量
14%
76-77°F
$297 交易量
21%
78-79°F
$402 交易量
32%
80-81°F
$318 交易量
19%
82-83°F
$154 交易量
3%
84-85°F
$241 交易量
3%
86-87°F
$185 交易量
1%
88-89°F
$897 交易量
<1%
90°F or higher
$3,383 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$6,591結束日期
2026-07-05市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,591結束日期
2026-07-05市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETRecent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions