Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月4日上海最高溫度？
7月4日上海最高溫度？
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$178,741 交易量
$178,741 交易量
2026-07-04
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$178,741 交易量
$178,741 交易量
2026-07-04
28°C or below
$9,615 交易量
No
29°C
$14,183 交易量
No
30°C
$16,773 交易量
No
31°C
$16,296 交易量
No
32°C
$26,127 交易量
No
33°C
$24,883 交易量
Yes
34°C
$21,691 交易量
No
35°C
$21,083 交易量
No
36°C
$16,196 交易量
No
37°C
$7,699 交易量
No
38°C or higher
$4,194 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$178,741結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$178,741結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus positions 32°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai's July 4 daily high at 36% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models showing peak readings clustered near seasonal norms for early July in eastern China. These projections incorporate current atmospheric patterns, including subtropical high pressure and moisture advection that typically moderate extremes while allowing urban heat effects to add 1–2°C locally. Supporting outcomes at 31°C and 33°C reflect model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or wind, with historical data indicating July maxima most often fall between 30–35°C absent strong heatwave setups. Refined model updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these market-implied odds as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions