Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on July 21 points to a hot, mostly sunny day with highs likely peaking near 104–105°F under weak high pressure and southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 53.5% implied probability for that bin. Typical late-July climatology features afternoon temperatures averaging 98–102°F, but current drier conditions and limited cloud cover or convection could allow readings to edge higher, consistent with the combined 46.5% odds on 106°F and above. Updated model runs tonight and morning observations will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on July 21?
106-107°F 100.0%
99°F or below <1%
100-101°F <1%
102-103°F <1%
$84,835 Vol.
$84,835 Vol.
99°F or below
No
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
No
104-105°F
No
106-107°F
Yes
108-109°F
No
110-111°F
No
112-113°F
No
114-115°F
No
116-117°F
No
118°F or higher
No
106-107°F 100.0%
99°F or below <1%
100-101°F <1%
102-103°F <1%
$84,835 Vol.
$84,835 Vol.
99°F or below
No
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
No
104-105°F
No
106-107°F
Yes
108-109°F
No
110-111°F
No
112-113°F
No
114-115°F
No
116-117°F
No
118°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 9:07 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on July 21 points to a hot, mostly sunny day with highs likely peaking near 104–105°F under weak high pressure and southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 53.5% implied probability for that bin. Typical late-July climatology features afternoon temperatures averaging 98–102°F, but current drier conditions and limited cloud cover or convection could allow readings to edge higher, consistent with the combined 46.5% odds on 106°F and above. Updated model runs tonight and morning observations will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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