Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 29?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 29?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$78,635 Vol.
$78,635 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$78,635 Vol.
$78,635 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
16°C or below
$904 Vol.
No
17°C
$807 Vol.
No
18°C
$677 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,575 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,749 Vol.
No
21°C
$4,076 Vol.
No
22°C
$6,313 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,592 Vol.
No
24°C
$34,712 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,884 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$10,347 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$78,635End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$78,635End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on April 29, driven by real-time observational data showing midday readings already hitting 25–26°C and short-range forecast models from services like AccuWeather projecting highs of 27–28°C (81°F) under humid, cloudy conditions with scattered rain. Late-April subtropical climatology in Guangzhou supports this, with historical April average highs near 26°C and current atmospheric patterns—warm air advection amid light southwest winds—favoring daytime peaks above the threshold. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Hong Kong Observatory bulletins align with at least 25°C, but live station data tips the balance. Only an improbable scenario like prolonged heavy rain-induced cooling or a station-specific measurement anomaly below 26°C could challenge this near-certainty before daily resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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