Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 2 point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33 °C under mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33 °C. Seasonal guidance for June–August indicates above-normal temperatures amid long-term warming trends, yet short-term model runs highlight uncertainty from variable cloud cover, humidity near 80–90 %, and light northeasterly winds that can suppress peak readings. Subtle differences in forecast timing of any rain bands or afternoon clearing will determine whether the daily high reaches the upper or lower end of this narrow band, keeping the leading outcomes closely contested until updated model guidance emerges closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2?
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$323,712 Vol.
$323,712 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$323,712 Vol.
$323,712 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
27°C or below
$7,760 Vol.
No
28°C
$4,468 Vol.
No
29°C
$11,442 Vol.
No
30°C
$29,566 Vol.
No
31°C
$54,412 Vol.
No
32°C
$63,586 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$77,280 Vol.
No
34°C
$43,071 Vol.
No
35°C
$15,916 Vol.
No
36°C
$9,262 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$6,949 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 2 point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33 °C under mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33 °C. Seasonal guidance for June–August indicates above-normal temperatures amid long-term warming trends, yet short-term model runs highlight uncertainty from variable cloud cover, humidity near 80–90 %, and light northeasterly winds that can suppress peak readings. Subtle differences in forecast timing of any rain bands or afternoon clearing will determine whether the daily high reaches the upper or lower end of this narrow band, keeping the leading outcomes closely contested until updated model guidance emerges closer to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$323,712End Date
Jul 2, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 2 point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33 °C under mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33 °C. Seasonal guidance for June–August indicates above-normal temperatures amid long-term warming trends, yet short-term model runs highlight uncertainty from variable cloud cover, humidity near 80–90 %, and light northeasterly winds that can suppress peak readings. Subtle differences in forecast timing of any rain bands or afternoon clearing will determine whether the daily high reaches the upper or lower end of this narrow band, keeping the leading outcomes closely contested until updated model guidance emerges closer to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$323,712End Date
Jul 2, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 2 point to a maximum temperature range of 28–33 °C under mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 31–33 °C. Seasonal guidance for June–August indicates above-normal temperatures amid long-term warming trends, yet short-term model runs highlight uncertainty from variable cloud cover, humidity near 80–90 %, and light northeasterly winds that can suppress peak readings. Subtle differences in forecast timing of any rain bands or afternoon clearing will determine whether the daily high reaches the upper or lower end of this narrow band, keeping the leading outcomes closely contested until updated model guidance emerges closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions