**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 9 maximum temperature centers on the Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast of a 32°C high, which aligns with the market’s leading 32°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability.** July’s subtropical monsoon climate typically produces daily maxima near 31–32°C, with the seasonal outlook calling for normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing long-term warming. Short-term differentiation between the clustered 31°C (27%) and 32°C buckets hinges on evolving cloud cover, shower timing, and any steering of tropical moisture; clearer afternoon skies would favor the upper end of model guidance while persistent rain or thick stratiform clouds would cap readings near 31°C. The 35°C+ bucket (19%) remains viable only if subsidence strengthens markedly, an outcome models currently assign low probability two days out. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model consensus over the next 48 hours will be the decisive inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$200,708 Vol.
$200,708 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$200,708 Vol.
$200,708 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
25°C or below
$3,198 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,768 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,530 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,153 Vol.
No
29°C
$10,521 Vol.
No
30°C
$24,413 Vol.
No
31°C
$49,911 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$37,466 Vol.
No
33°C
$21,770 Vol.
No
34°C
$19,115 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$21,862 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 9 maximum temperature centers on the Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast of a 32°C high, which aligns with the market’s leading 32°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability.** July’s subtropical monsoon climate typically produces daily maxima near 31–32°C, with the seasonal outlook calling for normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing long-term warming. Short-term differentiation between the clustered 31°C (27%) and 32°C buckets hinges on evolving cloud cover, shower timing, and any steering of tropical moisture; clearer afternoon skies would favor the upper end of model guidance while persistent rain or thick stratiform clouds would cap readings near 31°C. The 35°C+ bucket (19%) remains viable only if subsidence strengthens markedly, an outcome models currently assign low probability two days out. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model consensus over the next 48 hours will be the decisive inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$200,708End Date
Jul 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 9 maximum temperature centers on the Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast of a 32°C high, which aligns with the market’s leading 32°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability.** July’s subtropical monsoon climate typically produces daily maxima near 31–32°C, with the seasonal outlook calling for normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing long-term warming. Short-term differentiation between the clustered 31°C (27%) and 32°C buckets hinges on evolving cloud cover, shower timing, and any steering of tropical moisture; clearer afternoon skies would favor the upper end of model guidance while persistent rain or thick stratiform clouds would cap readings near 31°C. The 35°C+ bucket (19%) remains viable only if subsidence strengthens markedly, an outcome models currently assign low probability two days out. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model consensus over the next 48 hours will be the decisive inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$200,708End Date
Jul 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 9 maximum temperature centers on the Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast of a 32°C high, which aligns with the market’s leading 32°C outcome at 35.5% implied probability.** July’s subtropical monsoon climate typically produces daily maxima near 31–32°C, with the seasonal outlook calling for normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing long-term warming. Short-term differentiation between the clustered 31°C (27%) and 32°C buckets hinges on evolving cloud cover, shower timing, and any steering of tropical moisture; clearer afternoon skies would favor the upper end of model guidance while persistent rain or thick stratiform clouds would cap readings near 31°C. The 35°C+ bucket (19%) remains viable only if subsidence strengthens markedly, an outcome models currently assign low probability two days out. Updated HKO guidance and numerical model consensus over the next 48 hours will be the decisive inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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