Traders have converged on a 31°C or higher outcome for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on May 22 because official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a peak at or above that threshold. This aligns with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures across May–July, driven by long-term warming trends and supportive atmospheric conditions. Typical May climatology in the region features daytime highs near 28–30°C, with recent model guidance and real-time measurements confirming conditions that pushed readings into the low 30s. While forecast uncertainty exists in short-term model runs, the post-event data release leaves little room for downward revision, though any future reanalysis of station readings could theoretically adjust the final verified value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22?
31°C or higher 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$188,916 Vol.
$188,916 Vol.
May 22, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
Yes
31°C or higher 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$188,916 Vol.
$188,916 Vol.
May 22, 2026
21°C or below
$2,969 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,362 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,470 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,897 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,020 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,220 Vol.
No
27°C
$15,245 Vol.
No
28°C
$15,157 Vol.
No
29°C
$51,233 Vol.
No
30°C
$35,258 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$44,085 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on a 31°C or higher outcome for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on May 22 because official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a peak at or above that threshold. This aligns with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures across May–July, driven by long-term warming trends and supportive atmospheric conditions. Typical May climatology in the region features daytime highs near 28–30°C, with recent model guidance and real-time measurements confirming conditions that pushed readings into the low 30s. While forecast uncertainty exists in short-term model runs, the post-event data release leaves little room for downward revision, though any future reanalysis of station readings could theoretically adjust the final verified value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$188,916End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on a 31°C or higher outcome for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on May 22 because official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a peak at or above that threshold. This aligns with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures across May–July, driven by long-term warming trends and supportive atmospheric conditions. Typical May climatology in the region features daytime highs near 28–30°C, with recent model guidance and real-time measurements confirming conditions that pushed readings into the low 30s. While forecast uncertainty exists in short-term model runs, the post-event data release leaves little room for downward revision, though any future reanalysis of station readings could theoretically adjust the final verified value.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$188,916End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on a 31°C or higher outcome for Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on May 22 because official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a peak at or above that threshold. This aligns with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures across May–July, driven by long-term warming trends and supportive atmospheric conditions. Typical May climatology in the region features daytime highs near 28–30°C, with recent model guidance and real-time measurements confirming conditions that pushed readings into the low 30s. While forecast uncertainty exists in short-term model runs, the post-event data release leaves little room for downward revision, though any future reanalysis of station readings could theoretically adjust the final verified value.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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