Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 20?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 20?
19°C or higher 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$61,910 Vol.
$61,910 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
Yes
19°C or higher 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$61,910 Vol.
$61,910 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
9°C or below
$1,352 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,651 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,196 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,073 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,730 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,386 Vol.
No
15°C
$12,194 Vol.
No
16°C
$7,889 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,448 Vol.
No
18°C
$7,562 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$14,430 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$61,910End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$61,910End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a high temperature of 19°C or higher in Istanbul today, driven by strong alignment across global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projections of afternoon peaks at 19-20°C. Sunny skies, light southerly winds around 11 km/h, and a high-pressure ridge are fueling daytime heating, with midday observations already reaching 16°C and RealFeel values up to 23°C. This exceeds April climatological averages of 16-17°C at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, the market's NOAA resolution station. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine-layer clouds or a sudden sea breeze, though model agreement and minimal 1% precipitation risk make such shifts unlikely; monitor hourly airport readings through evening for confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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