**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 13?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$36,862 Vol.
$36,862 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$36,862 Vol.
$36,862 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
14°C or below
$590 Vol.
No
15°C
$669 Vol.
No
16°C
$698 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,664 Vol.
No
18°C
$8,174 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,788 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,875 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$2,492 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,170 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,912 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$4,832 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$36,862End Date
Jun 13, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,862End Date
Jun 13, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Strong model consensus on suppressed daytime heating has driven near-certain trader positioning at 20°C.** Numerical weather prediction runs from ECMWF and the Met Office indicate a cooler-than-average maritime air mass advecting over Istanbul under moderate northerly flow on June 13, limiting maximum temperatures to the 20–21°C range. This synoptic pattern, with associated cloud cover and reduced insolation, aligns closely with historical June climatology for the region when such flow regimes dominate. The 99.5% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this narrow outcome, with minimal spread in forecast highs. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any late-day clearing that enhances solar heating or an unexpected shift to southerly winds, which could nudge the official station reading into the 21°C bucket; however, current observations and short-range guidance show low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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